3rd and Long

Week 13: Mosley vs 3rd and Long

2008-11-27T09:30:00.000-08:00

Matt Mosley is still kicking my butt. Once again, he went 2-1 and I went 1-2. Mosley is now 24-11-1 and I'm 10-25-1. Now on to the picks...

Tennessee Titans (-11) @ Detroit Lions
Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3)
Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys (-12.5)

Mosley: Lions +11, Cardinals +3, Seahawks +12.5
3rd and Long: Lions +11, Eagles -3, Cowboys -12.5

Peace.

Please check out Matt Mosley's blog everyday...it's a must read.

Week 12: Mosley vs 3rd and Long

2008-11-23T08:40:00.000-08:00

Matt Mosley wins a minimum of two each week and I lose a minimum of two. That explains our records. Mosley is a stellar 22-10-1 and I'm a miserable 9-23-1. I'm getting closer each week to waving the white flag. Now on to this week's picks...

New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans (-5.5)
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (-1)
San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys (-10)

Mosley: Jets +5.5, Panthers +1, Cowboys -10
3rd and Long: Titans -5.5, Panthers +1, Cowboys -10

Here we go again...

Peace.

Please check out Matt Mosley's blog everyday...it's a must read.

Week 11: Mosley vs 3rd and Long

2008-11-15T16:43:00.000-08:00

Matt Mosley should become a professional handicapper. After going 2-1 last week, he brought his season record to 20-9-1. As for me, I'm a deceiving 8-21-1. I'm too lazy to do the math but I have a feeling that I'm getting close to being mathematically eliminated. Now on to this week's picks...

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-4)
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (-9)
Dallas Cowboys (-1) @ Washington Redskins

Mosley: Packers -4, Colts -9, Cowboys -1
3rd and Long: Bears +4, Colts -9, Cowboys -1

No luck needed.

Peace.

Please check out Matt Mosley's blog everyday...it's a must read.

Week 10: Mosley vs 3rd and Long

2008-11-08T20:07:00.000-08:00

Matt Mosley went 3-0 once again. I followed up with a deceiving 1-2. Mosley is now 18-8-1 and I'm 7-19-1. If I can't turn it around soon, I'm going to be mathematically eliminated. Shame is the first word that comes to mind. Now on to this week's picks...

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (-1)
Baltimore Ravens (-1) @ Houston Texans
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

Mosley: Saints +1, Ravens -1, Giants +3
3rd and Long: Falcons -1, Texans +1, Eagles -3

This could be bad...

Peace.

Please check out Matt Mosley's blog everyday...it's a must read.

Week 9: Mosley vs 3rd and Long

2008-11-01T21:14:00.000-07:00

Matt Mosley finally lost some ground to me. Mosley is now 15-8-1 and I'm 6-17-1. It's still an uphill climb but I'm trying. I'm feeling another good week coming. Now on to this week's picks...

Miami Dolphins @ Denver Broncos (-3)
Philadelphia Eagles (-7) @ Seattle Seahawks
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (-9)

Mosley: Dolphins +3, Eagles -7, Giants -9

3rd and Long: Dolphins +3, Seahawks +7, Cowboys +9

Wish us luck.

Peace.

Please check out Matt Mosley's blog everyday...it's a must read.

Week 8: Mosley vs 3rd and Long

2008-10-26T09:42:00.000-07:00

I took another beating last week and Matt Mosley now leads 14-6-1 to 4-16-1. My mama didn't raise a quitter. On to this week's picks...

Buffalo Bills (-1) @ Miami Dolphins

Mosley: Bills -1

3rd and Long: Are the Bills for real? This is a game that average teams lose and I think we'll find out that Buffalo is merely average. The Wildcat will be back in sync after an ineffective effort against Baltimore. See Ronnie run...Dolphins win. Dolphins +1

New York Giants @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

Mosley: Giants +3

3rd and Long: The bye week came at a perfect time for the Steelers. Big Ben should look pretty good after a week off. Still no Willie but Mewelde Moore has filled in admirably. Huge game for James Harrison. Steelers roll. Steelers -3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys (-1)

Mosley: Buccaneers +1

3rd and Long: Desperation is all that needs to be said. Cowboys -1

That's a wrap.

Peace.

Please check out Matt Mosley's blog everyday...it's a must read.

Week 7: Mosley vs 3rd and Long

2008-10-18T20:48:00.000-07:00

Matt Mosley is my kryptonite. I keep falling further behind. He's 12-5-1 and I'm 4-13-1. Go ahead and laugh because it is embarrassing. But I'm not a quitter and the white flag is still in the cabinet. Without further ado, on to the picks...

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers (-3) Cleveland Browns @ Washington Redskins (-7.5) Dallas Cowboys (-7) @ St. Louis Rams

Mosley: Panthers -3, Browns +7.5, Cowboys -7
3rd and Long: Saints +3, Redskins -7.5, Cowboys -7

Have a great Sunday.

Peace.

Please check out Matt Mosley's blog everyday...it's a must read.

3rd and Long Week 6 Power Rankings

2008-10-16T14:41:00.000-07:00

Enjoy...

1. Tennessee Titans (2)- Moved up by default. They should have a cake walk this week against the lowly Chiefs.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (6)- The Steelers won't end up with a great record but watch out for them in the playoffs.

3. New York Giants (1)- Man, that was an ugly loss to the Browns. No worries though, they are still pretty darn good.

4. Buffalo Bills (9)- Not sure what to think about the Bills. Big test against the Chargers Sunday.

5. Washington Redskins (4)- Huge letdown against the Rams. Can I use the bad zorno joke again?

6. Dallas Cowboys (3)- The injuries finally caught up with them. We're about to find out what kind of a team they really are. Romo or no Romo, you have to beat the Rams.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (15)- Does it matter who their QB is? That defense looks really stout.

8. Indianapolis Colts (13)- They proved that they can shutdown a team with a crappy offense...now we find out if they can do the same to the Packers. Oh yeah...Peyton looked really good last week.

9. Carolina Panthers (5)- They laid an egg against the Bucs, but they will win the AFC South. I guarantee it.

10. Arizona Cardinals (11)- They took down my Cowboys and now have a commanding lead in the NFC West. I hate them now because they broke my favorite punter's leg.

11. San Diego Chargers (17)- A win in Buffalo would be huge.

12. Denver Broncos (7)- I'm not a believer. I think they'll lose to the Pats.

13. Philadelphia Eagles (12)- They dodged a bullet in San Francisco last Sunday. It's a good time for their bye week.

14. Jacksonville Jaguars (19)- Good win against Denver. They should be 6-3 when they play Tennessee in November.

15. Atlanta Falcons (21)- Great story. Insane win against the Bears. I hope they can keep it up following a bye.

16. New Orleans Saints (16)- The Panthers will expose them.

17. Green Bay Packers (18)- Pivotal game against Indy.

18. New England Patriots (8)- The second you count them out, they will prove you wrong.

19. New York Jets (23)- It would be a bad time for a cross country letdown loss.

20. Chicago Bears (10)- Is it too early for a must win against Minnesota?

21. Baltimore Ravens (14)- Embarrassing loss to the Colts. Flacco has potential but he's not ready.

22. Minnesota Vikings (22)- They are the third best team in the NFC North...sad but true.

23. Cleveland Browns (27)- Google "Kellen Winslow undisclosed illness."

24. Miami Dolphins (20)- Tough loss to Houston. Will the college offense work against Baltimore?

25. San Francisco 49ers (24)- This looks exactly like a Mike Martz team.

26. Houston Texans (29)- Karma. They lost a game they should have won against Indy then they won a game they should have lost against Miami.

27. Seattle Seahawks (25)- Seneca Wallace or Charlie Frye? It doesn't matter. No playoff berth this year.

28. St.Louis Rams (31)- No way they can win two in a row.

29. Oakland Raiders (26)- Firing Kiffin was not the right move.

30. Kansas City Chiefs (28)- Brodie Croyle's wife.

31. Cincinnati Bengals (30)- No Carson Palmer = No wins.

32. Detroit Lions (32)- I'm feeling 0-6.

Have a great weekend.

Peace.

Week 6: Mosley vs 3rd and Long

2008-10-12T07:28:00.000-07:00

Matt Mosley is embarrassing me. He is now 11-3-1 and I'm a deceiving 4-10-1. I will win this week! No writeups this week. Now, on to the picks...

Chicago Bears (-1) @ Atlanta Falcons

Mosley: Bears -1
3rd and Long: Bears -1

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) @ San Francisco 49ers

Mosley: Eagles -4.5
3rd and Long: 49ers +4.5

Dallas Cowboys (-5) @ Arizona Cardinals

Mosley: Cowboys -5
3rd and Long: Cowboys -5

Thanks for checking in.

Peace.

Please check out Matt Mosley's blog everyday...it's a must read.

3rd and Long Week 5 Power Rankings

2008-10-08T12:54:00.000-07:00

I don't believe in ranking teams before the season begins or even after a couple of weeks. You just don't know who these teams really are until they play a few games. Who would have thought the Titans would be leading the AFC South? Who would have thought that Philly, Minnesota, Seattle, Jacksonville and San Diego all would be below .500 by Week 5? It's a crazy game my friends. Now on to the rankings...

1. New York Giants- How can they not be #1? Super Bowl champions plus a 4-0 start...easy.

2. Tennessee Titans- There's always a place for old quarterbacks who have a brain and can still locate passes. Who needs mobility?

3. Dallas Cowboys- Should be 5-0 but they got down seven points at home and panicked. If the secondary doesn't step it up, they will lose in Arizona this Sunday. Anyone else think T.O. will sign an endorsement deal with Kleenex soon?

4. Washington Redskins- Hip hip hooray. Hip hip hooray. Hip hip horray. Their first game looked like a bad zorno (I know, lame) but they have turned it around dramatically. Keep an eye on this team.

5. Carolina Panthers- I'm officially on the bandwagon and my Jake Delhomme jersey is in the mail. They travel to Tampa Bay Sunday with hopes of improving to 5-1.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers- Boy do they need this bye week. They're 4-1 now with a boat load of injuries. Big Ben is creeping up my man crush ladder.

7. Denver Broncos- The worst one loss team in the league. You can't win a playoff game with that poor of a defense.

8. New England Patriots- No Tom Brady = No Super Bowl. Still a good team though.

9. Buffalo Bills- I didn't think they would start 4-1...did you?

10. Chicago Bears- I guess Kyle Orton was the answer. Looks like the Bears are the class of the NFC North.

11. Arizona Cardinals- Another team proving that you can win with an old quarterback that can still throw.

12. Philadelphia Eagles- I would never have predicted it, but they are the fourth best team in the NFC East.

13. Indianapolis Colts- They are very lucky to be 2-2. It's time to put up or shut up as they host Baltimore trying to avoid falling below .500.

14. Baltimore Ravens- The defense is back. If Joe Flacco can be Trent Dilfer, they'll be a wild card team.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Only 13 points against the Broncos? Good defense though.

16. New Orleans Saints- Not sure what to think of them. Great offense but there's no excuse for losing a Monday night home game against the Vikings.

17. San Diego Chargers- Hopefully it's just another slow start, but please don't ever lose to the Dolphins in Week 5.

18. Green Bay Packers- Why didn't they let Brett Favre come back? If Aaron Rodgers gets hurt I think Vinny Testaverde's phone may start ringing.

19. Jacksonville Jaguars- They look very very average. Anyone know why? I'm still trying to figure it out.

20. Miami Dolphins- How about the Dolphins? Ronnie Brown in the "Wild Hog" is baffling these defenses. Bill Parcells + Chad Pennington + a college offensive scheme = .500

21. Atlanta Falcons- A new coach and a rookie quarterback go to Lambeau and take down the Packers. Kudos to Mike Smith and Matt Ryan.

22. Minnesota Vikings- Before the season, I said that the Vikings could win in spite of Tarvaris Jackson. I was wrong. Gus Frerotte is better than Jackson, but that's not saying much.

23. New York Jets- Brett Favre. Good move? Bad move? Favre and Pennington are both 2-2.

24. San Francisco 49ers- You tell me. I don't think anyone wants to win the NFC West.

25. Seattle Seahawks- Too many injuries to gauge. Let's talk after they play Green Bay Sunday.

26. Oakland Raiders- Al Davis is senile.

27. Cleveland Browns- They are who I thought they were! Start Brady so I can wear my jersey. Yes, I really do own a Brady Quinn Cleveland Browns jersey.

28. Kansas City Chiefs- Brodie Croyle's wife.

29. Houston Texans- I know Sage Rosenfels is not any Houstonian's favorite person right now, but I promise he is better than Matt Schaub.

30. Cincinnati Bengals- Dysfunction is the only thing that pops in my head.

31. St.Louis Rams- Call me crazy, but I predict that they will win four games this year.

32. Detroit Lions- NEVER BET ON THEM. I don't care what the spread is.

That's a wrap on my power rankings...I hope I brought some joy to your life.

Totally off topic but Derek Jeter is my new favorite baseball player. Why you ask? Two words....Minka Kelly.

Peace.

Week 5: Mosley vs 3rd and Long

2008-10-05T09:33:00.000-07:00

Matt Mosley is still kicking my butt. He is now 9-2-1 and I'm a deceiving 4-7-1. No writeups this week. Now, on to the picks...

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6)

Mosley: Eagles -6
3rd and Long: Eagles -6

Chicago Bears (-3.5) @ Detroit Lions

Mosley: Bears -3.5
3rd and Long: Lions +3.5

Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys (-17)

Mosley: Bengals +17
3rd and Long: Cowboys -17

Thanks for tuning in.

Peace.

Please check out Matt Mosley's blog everyday...it's a must read.

Week 4: Mosley vs 3rd and Long

2008-09-27T19:58:00.000-07:00

Matt Mosley now has a somewhat "commanding" lead on me. He's 6-2-1 and I'm 3-5-1. I'm feeling a sweep coming...watch out Mosley. Now, on to the picks...

Arizona Cardinals @ New York Jets (-1)

Mosley: Brett Favre always bounces back from injuries. The Cardinals were exposed last week against the Redskins.

3rd and Long: I'm not a believer in the Favre "experiment" yet. He's not 100% healthy and I think he'll struggle. Big day for Kurt Warner and the Cards will win a close one.

Mosley: Jets -1
3rd and Long: Cardinals +1

Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)

Mosley: Tampa Bay watched the Cowboys' film and they will harrass Aaron Rodgers. We celebrated this man's career too early.

3rd and Long: Aaron Rodgers looked very pedestrian against a stout Dallas defense. Monte Kiffin will throw the kitchen sink at Rodgers and he will struggle big time. Also, the Packers starting cornerbacks probably won't play which is good news for a Bucs team that threw it 67 times last week. Bucs roll at home.

Mosley: Bucaneers -1
3rd and Long: Buccaneers -1

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys (-11)

Mosley: The Redskins will cover this easily. Chris Cooley loves paying the Cowboys and it wouldn't surprise me if he has 100 yards and two touchdowns. This is a good spot for the Redskins. Real close game.

3rd and Long: Like I said last week, I'll pick against the 'Boys when someone proves that that offense can't be stopped. I think T.O. will have a big game and the 'Boys will win by 17.

Mosley: Redskins +11
3rd and Long: Cowboys -11

Thanks for tuning in everyone. Until next time...

Peace.

Please check out Matt Mosley's blog everyday...it's a must read.

Week 3 Reflections

2008-09-23T12:04:00.000-07:00

Due to my obsession with football and excess of homework, this week's "Reflections" will be an abbreviated edition.

Three teams that started 0-2 and couldn't afford another loss, came up big with their backs against the wall this week.

The Vikings were many people's preseason Super Bowl pick and following an 0-2 start, head coach Brad Childress decided it was time for a change. Young QB Tarvaris Jackson was benched for a seasoned Gus Frerotte. Frerotte isn't somebody that you're going to build a team around, but he does add the threat of a vertical passing game (something Jackson doesn't bring to the table). Frerotte was 16 of 28 for 204 yards with one touchdown and one pick. It wasn't great, but it was good enough. The Vikings doubled up the Panthers 20-10.
The Jaguars had the tough task of trying to avoid a daunting 0-3 start with a road game in Indianapolis. The Bob Sanders-less Colts gave up 236 yards rushing in a losing effort. Peyton Manning led a late scoring drive that resulted in a go ahead touchdown with a with a 1:07 left. Sixty-seven seconds proved to be enough time. The Jags drove down the field and Josh Scobee (reppin' dat 903) nailed a 51-yard game-winning field goal.
Finally, we had the Chargers facing the New York Bretts in San Diego on the Monday Night Football stage. Brett Favre looked, for lack of a better word, bad. I, personally, saw this one coming. I don't think the whole Favre to the Jets thing will be a success. Seventy-five percent of LaDainian Tomlinson is still better than most. Phillip Rivers looked great with the exception of an early pick six. And my favorite Jet, Chansi Stuckey, had a touchdown in his third straight game to start the season. The Chargers topped the Jets 48-29 bringing them to a manageable 1-2.

5 Things I Learned:
1. Decent quarterbacks are hard to come by.
2. Clock management must be more difficult than it seems.
3. Kerry Collins gives the Titans a better chance of winning than Vince.
4. The Bills are the best team in the AFC East.
5. Brandon Marshall isn't human.

5 Things That Proved to be True:
1. The Cowboys are the best team in the NFL.
2. The 2007 Browns were a fluke.
3. The Broncos' defense is THAT bad.
4. Tne NFL overtime format is a joke.
5. The Rams, Chiefs and Lions all have a decent shot at 0-16.

Rookie of the Week:

Call me a homer, but I've got to give it to Cowboys rookie RB Felix Jones. Jones has scored a touchdown in each of his first three games to start his career. On Sunday night, Jones busted a 60-yard touchdown run in the second quarter. I have no doubt that the Cowboys made the right choice picking Jones over Rashard Mendenhall.

Have a great week.

Peace.

Week 3: Mosley vs 3rd and Long

2008-09-20T15:23:00.000-07:00

Matt Mosley got the best of me again last week, but I feel good about this week. Mosley’s year to date record is 4-1-1 while mine is an ugly 2-3-1. Now, on to this week’s picks…

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

Mosley: I like the Eagles at the Linc. Donovan McNabb has been sharp, and I don't think the Steelers have been tested yet. Good team, but not as good as we think.

3rd and Long: I know McNabb looked great last Monday, but I think the Steelers’ defense is better than Dallas’. Willie Parker will be the star of this game. Pittsburgh wins in a close one.

Mosley: Eagles -3
3rd and Long: Steelers +3

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts (-5)

Mosley: Colts survived last week. On Sunday, they'll get things back on track with a huge division win. I told a few folks to keep an eye on the Jags for a possible Super Bowl run. My bad!

3rd and Long: The Colts still have a lot of injuries and losing Bob Sanders is really going to hurt the run defense. But I still think Peyton can win a game by himself. Also, the Jags have a lot to prove.

Mosley: Colts -5
3rd and Long: Colts -5

Dallas Cowboys (-3) @ Green Bay Packers

Mosley: Aaron Rodgers vs. Tony Romo? C'mon, is that really a contest? If this thing turns into a shootout, I like the Cowboys' chances.

3rd and Long: Until a defense proves that the Cowboys can be stopped, I’m going to pick them. I think the Cowboys’ defense will play better and Rodgers will struggle. ‘Boys roll.

Mosley: Cowboys -3
3rd and Long: Cowboys -3

Enjoy the games everyone.

Peace.

Please check out Matt Mosley's blog everyday...it's a must read.

Week 2 Reflections

2008-09-16T10:38:00.000-07:00

How great is the NFL? The story lines are endless and there are so many entertaining games each week. Comeback victories ruled Week 2.

The Redskins outscored the Saints 14-0 in the 4th quarter to secure a 29-24 victory.
The Panthers found themselves down 17-3 in the 3rd quarter then reeled off 17 unanswered points to bring their record to 2-0.
The Bills topped the Jaguars 20-16 following an acrobatic touchdown grab by rookie WR James Hardy in the 4th quarter.
The first six quarters of the Colts' season were ugly. They were down 15-0 to the Vikings in the 3rd quarter Sunday. Peyton Manning led the Colts' comeback, scoring two touchdowns in the second half and converting the two point conversion to tie the game up at 15-15. An Adam Vinatieri field goal with three seconds left sealed the 18-15 victory.
And last but most definitely not least was the Monday night thriller. The Eagles led the Cowboys 30-24 at halftime. This first half was a track meet to say the least. The defenses showed up (sort of) in the second half. The Cowboys trailed 37-34 in the 4th before a one yard touchdown run by Marion Barber with 4:40 left. Barber's touchdown proved to be the game winner.

Before we move on top 5s and observations, I need to weigh in on the Ed Hochuli situation. Let me start by saying the Chargers got hosed. Their defense is obviously not the same without Shawne Merriman. That aside, San Diego did what they needed to do to put themselves in a position to win the game. The ball slipped out of Jay Cutler's hand, the Chargers recovered it and the game should have been over, but Hochuli blew the play dead immediately after the ball hit the ground due to an odd rule the Broncos retained possession at the spot of the fumble. Hochuli made a mistake. Everyone has made a mistake before (except me) and Hochuli admitted it. If the Chargers' secondary could have stopped one of two plays, I wouldn't have just typed 130 words. Granted, San Diego wouldn't have been put in that position if Hochuli doesn't screw up, but I'm not sure there is a way to make this right. People in the know say Hochuli is one of the best refs the NFL has, so a suspension is out of the question. I see only way to make him completely understand the magnitude of his mistake...no lifting for a month. Gotta get him where it hurts.

5 Things I Learned:
1. The NFC has surpassed the AFC as the best conference.
2. When Donovan McNabb is 100% healthy, he's a top 5 quarterback in the league.
3. The Seahawks can't win without their top four wide receivers...even at home.
4. The Jets are overrated.
5. The Cowboys do not need to play defense to win.

5 Things That Proved to be True:
1. The Chiefs will probably have the #1 pick in the 2009 draft.
2. The Lions' defense is also bad at home.
3. Peyton Manning can will his team to victory.
4. Brian Westbrook is still underrated. He is the third best running back and the best pass catching back.
5. The NFC East is the best division in the NFL (sorry AFC South).

Other Observations:

Tarvaris Jackson is quickly becoming a liability at quarterback for the Vikings. Adrian Peterson is a beast but cannot be the only offensive threat on the field. With Jackson, the short passes are sketchy at best and the play action deep ball is not an option.
The Jaguars and Chargers could be in trouble. Starting the season 0-2 is bad but not crippling. I'm not sure they can come back to make the playoffs if they start 0-3.
Reggie Bush now has two highlights in his career and on both he makes himself look like an idiot. I know he doesn't score often, but why does he feel the need to taunt as he is running toward the endzone? Yes, we know you're faster than most people on the field, but don't show people up.
Speaking of idiots, rookie WR DeSean Jackson of the Philadelphia Eagles topped Bush. McNabb threw a bomb right on target to a wide open Jackson who pulled it in and two yards before stepping into the endzone, he decided to start his celebration early by throwing the ball behind him. Why not just wait the extra second to avoid any confusion? Check out the video for yourself.
Here is a list of players that caught passes for the Seahawks on Sunday: John Carlson, Billy McMullen, Courtney Taylor, Julius Jones, Logan Payne, Michael Bumpus and Owen Schmitt. That is a sad list. By the way, Seattle signed WR Koren Robinson and traded for Broncos WR Keary Colbert today.
The Buffalo Bills and Arizona Cardinals are both 2-0. Who saw that coming? Watch out, the Bills are sneaky good.
Matt Cassel was decent in the Patriots' 19-10 victory over the Jets. Belichick is definitely altering the game plan to take some pressure off Cassel. The Pats have the Dolphins next week followed by the bye week then the 49ers. That gives Cassel three more weeks taking snaps with the first team offense.

Rookie of the Week:

It came down to two guys this week...DeSean Jackson or Raiders' RB Darren McFadden. I've got to give it to McFadden because he didn't act like an idiot during his stellar performance. McFadden had 164 yards on 21 carries and his first career touchdown. He has star potential. It's a shame he's stuck in the hell hole known as Oakland.

Media Notes of the Week:

I really think that the Monday Night Football producers told Tony Kornheiser not mention Jessica Simpson because I only heard her name once. It's not like Tony not to harp on an irrelevant topic for an entire broadcast (i.e. Favre in Week 1).

I got to watch Fox's NFL pregame show Sunday morning and I have to admit it's pretty good. The addition of Michael Strahan was worthy every penny. He's funny and very insightful with his analysis. The group Fox has assembled is definitely better than CBS and ESPN.

That does it for my Week 2 Reflections. I'll be back later in the week with more blogging brillance.

Peace.

Week 2: Mosley vs 3rd and Long

2008-09-12T12:27:00.000-07:00

Well, Matt Mosley got the best of me on our Week 1 picks. I went 2-1 while our resident NFC East guru swept the board. It's a long season and I will rebound. We have some interesting games that we are picking so it should be a fun week.

Now on to our Week 2 picks...

New England Patriots @ New York Jets (-1)

Mosley: Give me the Jets even though I don't like the line. This is a blood feud, but I just think the pressure for young Matt Cassel is too immense in this game. Bill Belichick will throw everything at Brett Favre, but you can't stop a legend. Jets roll!

3rd and Long: This is a surprise to me. The public is on the Patriots. I would have thought they would be giving Brett Favre at home some love against the Brady-less Pats. I still think the Pats will make the playoffs, but I don't see immediate success for a QB that hasn't started a game since high school. Favre will shine at home with the Jets fans cheering him on.

Mosley: Jets -1
3rd and Long: Jets -1

Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers (-3)

Mosley: I loved the way the Bears looked in Game 1. That defense is tough, and without Steve Smith, I don't think Jake Delhomme will be that successful. And the Bears will be all over Donte Rosario (I keep wanting to call him Rosario Dawson). Give me the Bears and the points.

3rd and Long: The Great Jake is back my friends. Crazy come from behind game in San Diego last week. I know the Bears just beat the Colts, but I don't put much stock into that victory. The Panthers look they're ready to contend for the playoffs. I'm going to lay the points with the home favorite.

Mosley: Bears +3
3rd and Long: Panthers -3

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (-7)

Mosley: E-A-G-L-E-S...Eagles!!! Take the points. Cowboys will pull out the win, but that's too many points to pass up. As my radio partner Randy Galloway says, bet 'til yo hands bleed. Donovan McNabb's too good not to keep this one close.

3rd and Long: This spread seems high doesn't it? I'm with Vegas on this one. I think the 'Boys are in a good spot here. Revenge will be on their minds. Philly came into Dallas late last year and shutdown the 'Boys potent offense. That won't happen Monday. The O-line will protect Romo (even with Philly's exotic blitzes) and the Cowboys will roll.

Mosley: Eagles +7
3rd and Long: Cowboys -7

These are just three of many great games this weekend. Enjoy the weekend everybody.

Peace.

Please check out Matt Mosley's blog everyday...it's a must read.

Week 1 Reflections

2008-09-09T11:22:00.000-07:00

It's back...it's finally back. Words can't describe how much I missed the NFL. As a Cowboys and Colts fan, last season ended on a bitter note for me. January 13, 2008 was quite possibly the worst day of my entire life. Anyways, this is my take on Week 1...

The first week of the 2008 edition of the NFL was overshadowed by the season ending knee injury suffered by Tom Brady. This is obviously a huge blow to the Patriots. Brady's replacement is the lifetime backup Matt Cassel. Cassel has not started a game since 1999, when he was in high school. He attended USC and spent his entire collegiate career backing up Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart. The Patriots must have filmed the Trojans' practices too because they decided to draft him.

5 Things I learned:
1. The Vikings need Tarvaris Jackson to be able complete easy passes in order for them to win.
2. The Colts need their starters (especially Peyton) to play a couple preseason games in order to be ready for "real" football.
3. The Redskins were NOT ready to play a regular season game.
4. Scott Linehan will get fired before the end of the season.
5. The Dolphins aren't terrible.

5 Things That Proved to be True:
1. The Lions cannot win a road game
2. The Browns 2007 season might have been a fluke
3. The Saints will be much better in 2008.
4. Jake Delhomme is the key to the Panthers' success.
5. The Bengals are TERRIBLE.

Other Observations:

The Steelers are going to be well prepared when the playoffs roll around. They have a tough schedule and I'm a firm believer in losses and tough games building character. The Patriots proved that a relatively easy regular season does not prepare you for adversity in the playoffs.
Jeff Saturday is a really big part of the Colts' offense. His injury forced Indy to start a rookie at center and we saw how out of rhythm that offense looked.
Joe Flacco is slower than most lineman and it still didn't matter against the horrendous Bengals' defense.
Reggie Bush had 14 carries for 51 yards and eight catches for 112 yards. Hopefully, Sean Payton learned where Mr. Kardashian is most effective.
Chad Pennington had more passing yards than Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Jake Delhomme, Phillip Rivers, Jeff Garcia, Marc Bulger, David Garrard and Tom Brady (sorry, I had to).
Andre Johnson is a top 5 wide receiver in the entire league.
Tony Romo had the best protection I've ever seen. My boy Patrick Crayton described it perfectly to Fort Worth Star-Telegram columnist Randy Galloway:

"[Romo] was surveying the field like he was at the beach, picking out honeys and he had plenty of time to look." Crayton said.

Are the Chargers just slow starters or are they overrated? Also, Darren Sproles is too small to be a running back in this league. Look for Jacob Hester to emerge as the backup.

Rookie of the Week:

This is a tough one. Joe Flacco did great. DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal also looked great, but I have to give it Matt Ryan. He threw a 62 yard touchdown pass on his first career NFL pass attempt. He didn't make any mistakes and led his team to victory. Matt Ryan is my rookie of the week.

Media Notes of the Week:

I know it's a once a year occurrence, but ESPN has to re-think putting Mike Greenberg, Mike Golic and Mike Ditka in the booth together to call an NFL game. They were awful. It sounded like three drunk buddies in a bar watching a game together. Ditka sounded incoherent and his random outbursts startled me. Greenberg and Golic sounded like they were doing their radio show. I have to admit that I feel asleep halfway through the fourth quarter.

The real Monday Night Football crew wasn't much better. Tony Kornheiser was annoying. He was constantly making references to Brett Favre. It got old fast. Ron Jaworski even told him to knock it off. I like Mike Tirico's enthusiasm and I love Jaworski's analysis, but Kornheiser ruins it.

That's a wrap on my Week 1 Reflections. I'll be back later in the week with the second edition of "Mosley vs 3rd Long" and possibly more...

Peace.

Join us in welcoming...

2008-09-04T14:19:00.000-07:00

On this glorious Thursday afternoon, 3rd and Long is proud to introduce the newest contributor to our blog…Matt Mosley. For the vast minority of you who don’t know who Matt is, let me tell you a little about him.

Many call Matt Mosley the pride of Kaufman, Texas. He graduated from Baylor University with degrees in Speech Communication and History. After graduating, Mosley attended Baylor Law School. That didn’t last long. He “dropped” out to pursue a career in journalism. Mosley spent seven years with the Dallas Morning News before ESPN.com came calling. He was the founder of the now defunct “Hashmarks” NFL blog on ESPN.com.

Recently, ESPN.com revamped their blog network and in what I see as a promotion, Mosley was appointed head of the NFC East.

In addition to his blogger duties, Mosley is the star of 103.3 FM ESPN Radio in Dallas. He currently resides in Lake Highlands with his wife Meredith, daughter Parker and chocolate Labrador Trooper Taylor.

Mosley has graciously agreed to contribute to 3rd and Long weekly during the NFL season. We will be picking three NFL games head-to-head against the spread each week. As for what’s on the line…that’ll be announced later.

So without further ado, on to our picks…

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants (-3.5)

Mosley: The New York Giants have too much riding on this game to flop. They will ride the wave of adoration from their fans and win. I'm a huge Jim Zorn fan, but not on this night.

3rd and Long: I just have a feeling that the Giants will have a post-Super Bowl let down tonight. The significance of the loss of Osi will be seen. Jim Zorn will come out aggressive and exploit the Giants' secondary. Look for Chris Cooley to have a big game as the Redskins go to Giants Stadium and win outright.

Mosley: Giants -3.5
3rd and Long: Redskins +3.5

Dallas Cowboys (-5) @ Cleveland Browns

Mosley: The Cowboys simply have too many weapons for the Browns' weak secondary to slow down. Who cares if the Boys don't have a No. 3 receiver. They won't need one. Terence Newman will have a pick and the Cows will roll.

3rd and Long: The Cowboys will be ready when 3:15 Sunday rolls around. The playoff loss to the Giants is still on their minds. The 'Boys will come out throwing and try to get a big lead fast and run with Marion Barber after that. The Browns will not be ready for a team of this caliber. Cowboys easy.

Mosley: Cowboys -5
3rd and Long: Cowboys -5

Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) @ Baltimore Ravens

Mosley: For some reason, the Bengals and Ravens always seem to meet in the first week. I think the Ravens will come out and play hard for John Harbaugh in his first game. Scared about Joe Flacco at quarterback, but Baltimore will score a defensive TD to win.

3rd and Long: The public is all over the Bengals in this game and that's probably because of the huge question mark the Ravens have at quarterback. I haven't seen Joe Flacco as anybody's rookie of the year pick. The Bengals are better at every offensive position except maybe running back. You would think the Bengals would be more than a 1.5 point favorite. I just think Vegas has something up their sleeve on this one. I say the Ravens win and Matt Stover is the game's MVP.

Mosley: Ravens +1.5
3rd and Long: Ravens +1.5

That wraps ups the first edition of "Mosley vs. 3rd and Long." I will be tracking our records and at the end the season, we will crown a champion.

Peace,

3rd and Long

2008 NFL Team-by-team Preview: NFC Edition

2008-09-03T08:51:00.000-07:00

On to the NFC...

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

2007 Record: 13-3
Notable Additions: CB Adam “Pacman” Jones, LB Zach Thomas, G Montrae Holland
Notable Losses: RB Julius Jones, WR Terry Glenn, LB Akin Ayodele, CB Jacques Reeves
Draft Picks (Round):

(1) Felix Jones, RB Arkansas
(1) Mike Jenkins, CB South Florida
(2) Martellus Bennett, TE Texas A&M
(4) Tashard Choice, RB Georgia Tech
(5) Orlando Scandrick, CB Boise State
(6) Erik Walden, DE Middle Tennessee State

Vegas total: 10 ½

Yet again, a promising Cowboys’ season ended in disappointment. The ‘Boys offense was close to unstoppable during most of the regular season but stumbled to the finish. For the 11th year in a row, they failed to notch playoff victory (a first round bye doesn’t equal a victory).

The good news for Cowboys fans is the team got better in the offseason. The free agent signing of veteran LB Zach Thomas has all the signs of being a spectacular pickup. Pairing Thomas in middle with fellow linebacker Bradie James will provide the defense with one of the league’s best and smartest middle linebacker tandems.

One of the most controversial offseason moves was trading for troubled CB Adam “Pacman” Jones. Jones will definitely have some rust to shake off and I don’t think he will be sharp enough to supplant Anthony Henry as the #2 cornerback spot (at least not by Week 1). With that said, Jones will be a huge asset in nickel and dime packages as well as the return game.

Running back was a hot topic during the offseason. Marion Barber proved he is the best back on the team and Julius Jones proved that he was not worth resigning. Losing Jones was addition by subtraction. The departure of one Jones made room for another. The Cowboys used the first of their two first round draft picks on a running back out of Arkansas named Felix Jones. The new Jones will add versatility to an already versatile offense. He has great speed and good vision. He will help in the return game and provide relief for Barber. They also used their fourth round draft pick on a running back, Tashard Choice out of Georgia Tech. I personally love this pick. I think Choice has the skills to contribute immediately. Hopefully, they can find a way to get him at least five touches a game.

The only position battle of note is for the #3 wide receiver spot. Right now, Sam Hurd and Miles Austin are both injured. Austin’s injury is more serious and he will miss more time than Hurd. Isaiah Stanback will be the fill in wide receiver.

Bottom line: The 2007 season was pretty much a failure. You can’t put up numbers like the Cowboys did and lose your first playoff game. They have the talent to make a Super Bowl run and if they don’t win a playoff game again in 2008, I wouldn’t want to be anywhere near Dallas. The offense should be even better in the second year under the “Boy Wonder.” I see the Cowboys winning the NFC East and possibly making a Super Bowl appearance. Wow, I made it through all of the without mentioning Jessica. Oh yeah Jessica, if Tony is your Sunday, I’ll be your Monday through Saturday.

3rd and Long Projected Record: 12-4 (Over)

New York Giants

2007 Record: 10-6 (Super Bowl Champs)
Notable Additions: S Sammy Knight, QB David Carr, DE Reynaldo Wynn, DE Jerome McDougle
Notable Losses: TE Jeremy Shockey, DE Michael Strahan, LB Kawika Mitchell
Draft Picks (Round):

(1) Kenny Phillips, S Miami (FL)
(2) Terrell Thomas, CB USC
(3) Mario Manningham, WR Michigan
(4) Bryan Kehl, LB BYU
(5) Jonathan Goff, LB Vanderbilt
(6) Andre Woodson, QB Kentucky
(6) Robert Henderson, DE Southern Mississippi

Vegas total: 8 ½

Wow. What a difference a year makes. The Giants went from a team with a head coach on the hot seat and a quarterback who needed to put up or shut up to Super Bowl championships.

They started the 2007 0-2 and nearly 0-3 then won 14 of their next 18 games. Not one of their playoff games was played in East Rutherford. Oh yeah, they also beat the then undefeated New England Patriots to win the ‘ship.

The Giants lost the captain and vocal leader of their defense Michael Strahan to FOX television. Justin Tuck will be called on to fill the gap (you see what I did there?) left by Strahan at left defensive end. Fellow DE Osi Umenyiora was lost for the season due to a knee injury suffered in a preseason game. Mathias Kiwanuka will transition back to defensive end from linebacker to fill the void. Another notable loss was bad boy tight end Jeremy Shockey. Shockey was traded to the Saints for draft picks after Kevin Boss emerged as a viable starter while Shockey was injured.

Assuming Plaxico Burress is healthy, he will be the #1 wide receiver with veteran Amani Toomer filling the #2 slot. From what I saw last year, it wouldn’t surprise me to see second year wide receiver Steve Smith emerge as Eli’s second favorite target. The #4 wide receiver seems to be up for grabs. David Tyree (PUP), Sinorice Moss and third round draft pick Mario Manningham will fight for the job throughout the year.

Bottom line: In my opinion, the Giants team overachieved last year. They caught fire at the right time and Eli played the best football of his life in the playoffs. Having said that, I still think they will be a pretty good team in 2008. The secondary worries me, but I think they can overcome it. I see the Giants finishing in the middle of the NFC East and contending for a wild card spot.

3rd and Long Projected Record: 10-6 (Over)

Philadelphia Eagles

2007 Record: 8-8
Notable Additions: CB Asante Samuel, DE Chris Clemons, RB Lorenzo Booker
Notable Losses: DE Jevon Kearse, LB Takeo Spikes, DE Jerome McDougle
Draft Picks (Round):

(2) Trevor Laws, DT Notre Dame
(2) DeSean Jackson, WR California
(3) Bryan Smith, LB McNeese State
(4) Mike McGlynn, OT Pittsburgh
(4) Quintin Demps, FS UTEP
(4) Jack Ikegwuonu, CB Wisconsin
(6) Mike Gibson, OT California
(6) Joe Mays, LB North Dakota State
(6) Andy Studebaker, LB Wheaton
(7) King Dunlap, OT Auburn

Vegas total: 8 ½

The Eagles posted a disappointing 8-8 record in 2007. McNabb missing two games didn’t help the situation, but anytime the Eagles miss the playoffs it’s a disappointment.

McNabb looked great in the last three games of 2007 and he seems to think it will carry over into 2008. The Eagles added Pro Bowl CB Asante Samuel to solidify their secondary. If healthy, Samuel will start at corner alongside Sheldon Brown.

Pro Bowl RB Brian Westbrook returns with a new contract and his eyes on another sensational season. Correll Buckhalter returns as his backup and Lorenzo Booker will be the third back.

Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis will be the #1 and #2 wide receivers, respectively when healthy. However, the other two spots are up for grabs. Greg Lewis, Jason Avant, Hank Baskett and DeSean Jackson are all vying for the spots.

Bottom line: The Eagles finished 2007 strong and I think it will continue this year. If McNabb and Westbrook stay healthy, this could be a pretty good year for Philly. I see them finishing near the top of the NFC East and contending for a wild card spot.

3rd and Long Projected Record: 11-5 (Over)

Washington Redskins

2007 Record: 9-7
Notable Additions: DE Jason Taylor
Notable Losses: DE Phillip Daniels (IR), WR Brandon Lloyd
Draft Picks (Round):

(2) Devin Thomas, WR Michigan State
(2) Fred Davis, TE USC
(2) Malcolm Kelly, WR Oklahoma
(3) Chad Rinehart, OT Northern Iowa
(4) Justin Tryon, CB Arizona State
(6) Durant Brooks, P Georgia Tech
(6) Kareem Moore, CB Nicholls State
(6) Colt Brennan, QB Hawaii
(7) Rob Jackson, DE Kansas State
(7) Chris Horton, FS UCLA

Vegas total: 7 ½

The Redskins made the playoffs in 2007 despite losing starting QB Jason Campbell to a broken leg in Week 14. Career backup Todd Collins took over for Campbell and led the ‘Skins to the playoffs. They lost to the Seahawks in the first round and Head Coach Joe Gibbs retired.

Former Seahawks quarterback coach, Jim Zorn, was hired to replace Gibbs.

The Redskins suffered injuries to two of their defensive ends in same day which led to the acquisition of Dolphins DE Jason Taylor. It had been speculated that Parcells wanted to trade Taylor after he skipped some OTA’s to compete on Dancing with the Stars.

Bottom line: I think the Redskins should be “NFC good” this year, but I’m not sure that will be good enough to make the playoffs. Six games against the Cowboys, Eagles and Giants makes for a difficult schedule. Look for the Redskins to finish at the bottom of the NFC East and miss the playoffs.

3rd and Long Projected Record: 8-8 (Over)

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

2007 Record: 8-8
Notable Additions: DE Travis LaBoy, P Dirk Johnson
Notable Losses: S Terrence Holt, LB Calvin Pace
Draft Picks (Round):

(1) Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, DB Tennessee State
(2) Calais Campbell, DE Miami (FL)
(3) Early Doucet, WR LSU
(4) Kenny Iwebema, DE Iowa
(5) Tim Hightower, RB Richmond
(6) Chris Harrington, DE Texas A&M
(7) Brandon Keith, OT Northern Iowa

Vegas total: 7 ½

I wasn’t drinking the Cardinals kool-aid last year and I won’t be this year. I’ve never really understood the hype. They always find a way to screw it up. Last year, my buddy Neil and I made a bet about two borderline team’s playoff chances. He said the Cardinals would make playoffs and I said the Titans would. Needless to say, I was $50 richer. Anyways, who is going to be the starting quarterback? Kurt Warner got the nod. I would go with Leinart. The defense will once again be mediocre and they’ll find a way to miss the playoffs even though they play in such a poor division.

3rd and Long Projected Record: 6-10 (Under)

San Francisco 49ers

2007 Record: 5-11
Notable Additions: WR Isaac Bruce, WR Bryant Johnson, DE Justin Smith, LB Takeo Spikes
Notable Losses: WR Darrell Jackson, WR Antonio Bryant, WR Ashley Lelie
Draft Picks (Round):

(1) Kentwan Balmer, DT North Carolina State
(2) Chilo Rachal, G USC
(3) Reggie Smith, CB Oklahoma
(4) Cody Wallace, C Texas A&M
(6) Josh Morgan, WR Virginia Tech
(7) Larry Grant, OLB Ohio State

Vegas total: 6 ½

Every year, some teams make good offseason moves and some make bad ones. The 49ers decided the best way to improve on a 5-11 2007 season was to hire Mike Martz as their offensive coordinator. In my opinion, they are committing team suicide. Martz’s system worked in St. Louis around the turn of the century, but hasn’t resembled any kind of success since. On top of all that, J.T. O’Sullivan will be their starting quarterback, beating out former #1 overall pick Alex Smith. I have a feeling that by Week 7 we will be wondering where Frank Gore has gone. Sorry bro. The 49ers have a pretty tough schedule and I think it could get pretty ugly this year.

3rd and Long Projected Record: 5-11 (Under)

Seattle Seahawks

2007 Record: 10-6
Notable Additions: RB Julius Jones, RB T.J. Duckett, TE Jeb Putzier, K Olindo Mare
Notable Losses: RB Shaun Alexander, K Josh Brown, WR D.J. Hackett, TE Marcus Pollard
Draft Picks (Round):

(1) Lawrence Jackson, DE USC
(2) John Carlson, TE Notre Dame
(4) Red Bryant, DT Texas A&M
(5) Owen Schmitt, FB West Virginia
(6) Tyler Schmitt, C San Diego State
(7) Justin Forsett, RB California
(7) Brandon Coutu, K Georgia

Vegas total: 8 ½

The Seahawks have been a pretty good team for a while now and I don’t see it coming to an end this season. Addition by subtraction for the Seahawks was getting rid of Shaun Alexander. That was a quick fall from glory. They signed the Cowboys’ sloppy seconds to take his place. Playing in the NFC West makes making the playoffs a much easier task. Their chances of missing the playoffs are the same as Matt Hasselbeck having to buy a comb.

3rd and Long Projected Record: 10-6 (Over)

St. Louis Rams

2007 Record: 3-13
Notable Additions: K Josh Brown, QB Trent Green
Notable Losses: WR Isaac Bruce, K Jeff Wilkins, QB Gus Frerotte
Draft Picks (Round):

(1) Chris Long, DE Virginia
(2) Donnie Avery, WR Houston
(3) John Greco, OT Toledo
(4) Justin King, CB Penn State
(4) Keenan Burton, WR Kentucky
(5) Roy Schuening, OG Oregon State
(7) Chris Chamberlain, LB Tulsa
(7) David Vobora, LB Idaho

Vegas total: 6 ½

What an incredibly disappointing 2007 season. The Rams had a makeshift offensive line all year, but 3-13 is unacceptable especially with the offensive firepower that this team supposedly possesses. Steven Jackson recently got paid so hopefully he will perform up to his capabilities. If everyone can stay healthy, they could be good, but they won’t make the playoffs. Hopefully, they won’t disappoint all the fantasy owners out there.

3rd and Long Projected Record: 8-8 (Over)

NFC North

Chicago Bears

2007 Record: 7-9
Notable Additions: RB Kevin Jones, WR Marty Booker, WR Brandon Lloyd
Notable Losses: RB Cedric Benson, WR Bernard Berrian, WR Muhsin Muhammad, S Adam Archuleta, LB Brendon Ayanbadejo
Draft Picks (Round):

(1) Chris Williams, OT Vanderbilt
(2) Matt Forte, RB Tulane
(3) Earl Bennett, WR Vanderbilt
(3) Marcus Harrison, DT Arkansas
(4) Craig Steltz, CB LSU
(5) Zackary Bowman, CB Nebraska
(5) Kellen Davis, TE Michigan State
(7) Ervin Baldwin, DE Michigan State
(7) Chester Adams, G Georgia
(7) Joey LaRocque, LB Oregon State
(7) Kirk Barton, OT Ohio State
(7) Marcus Monk, WR Arkansas

Vegas total: 8

I’m not sure what Kyle Orton did to earn the starting job. I guess it’s possible that Lovie Smith is a fan of facial hair. The more logical explanation is simple…he name isn’t Rex Grossman. One of the most interesting stories of the Bears’ offseason was the events leading up to the release of RB Cedric Benson. One of a couple run-ins with law this offseason included a BWI (boating while intoxicated). Here’s the best part. Fellow UT alum Ricky Williams was supposed to be with Benson on the boat, but didn’t make it for unspecified reasons. Williams said that if he had been there the incident would not have occurred because he has a “calming influence on people.” There is so much irony in that statement. Anyways, the Bears won’t be very good. They have a moderately difficult schedule and their record will reflect that.

3rd and Long Projected Record: 5-11 (Under)

Detroit Lions

2007 Record: 7-9
Notable Additions: CB Brian Kelly, CB Leigh Bodden, CB Travis Fisher, TE Michael Gaines, RB Rudi Johnson
Notable Losses: RB Kevin Jones, DT Shaun Rogers, CB Fernando Bryant, RB T.J. Duckett, RB Tatum Bell
Draft Picks (Round):

(1) Gosder Cherilus, OT Boston College
(2) Jordan Dizon, LB Colorado
(3) Kevin Smith, RB Central Florida
(3) Andre Fluellen, DT Florida State
(3) Cliff Avril, LB Purdue
(5) Kenneth Moore, RB Wake Forest
(5) Jerome Felton, FB Furman
(7) Landon Cohen, DT Ohio
(7) Caleb Campbell, SS Army (Was forced to serve in the Army)

Vegas total: 6 ½

I’m sure all of you Lions fans out there were happy to see Mike Martz go. I think that Kitna will be more efficient and take a lot few hits. The offense should feature more of a balanced attack with rookie Kevin Smith and former Bengal Rudi Johnson handling the running game. They are still a little weak on defensive side of the ball and need to prove that they can win on the road before I pick them to win their division.

3rd and Long Projected Record: 8-8 (Over)

Green Bay Packers

2007 Record: 13-3
Notable Additions: LB Brandon Chillar
Notable Losses: QB Brett Favre, TE Bubba Franks
Draft Picks (Round):

(2) Jordy Nelson, WR Kansas State
(2) Brian Brohm, QB Louisville
(2) Patrick Lee, CB Auburn
(3) Jermichael Finley, TE Texas
(4) Jeremy Thompson, DE Wake Forest
(4) Josh Sitton, G Central Florida
(5) Breno Giacomini, OT Louisville
(7) Matt Flynn, QB LSU
(7) Brett Swain, WR San Diego State

Vegas total: 8

Following the 2007 season, Brett Favre retired. Well, sort of…actually not really. He’s not a Packer anymore because they didn’t want him, so they traded him to the Jets. In return, the Packers received a 4th round draft pick, but it could be a 3rd or possibly a 2nd or if hell freezes over and the Jets go to the Super Bowl it could be a 1st.

Now, it’s the Aaron Rodgers era in Green Bay. For his sake, I hope he doesn’t suck it up in the first game. The Packers have pretty much the same team as their NFC Championship squad last season (except for Favre of course). It’s not easy replacing a legend and Hall of Famer. They are a borderline playoff team sans Favre.

3rd and Long Projected Record: 8-8 (Push)

Minnesota Vikings

2007 Record: 8-8
Notable Additions: DE Jared Allen, WR Bernard Berrian, FB Tony Richardson, RB Maurice Hicks
Notable Losses: DE Erasmus James, QB Kelly Holcomb
Draft Picks (Round):

(2) Tyrell Johnson, FS Arkansas State
(5) John David Booty, QB USC
(5) Letroy Guion, DT Florida State
(6) John Sullivan, C Notre Dame
(6) Jaymar Johnson, WR Jackson State

Vegas total: 9

The Vikings are no doubt this year’s sexy pick. I hate to jump on the bandwagon, but I like them too…a lot. I actually think that Tarvaris Jackson will be a lot better this year and even if he isn’t, I think they can win in spite of him. If Adrian Peterson stays healthy, he will dominate again. To go along with an already stellar defensive line featuring the best tackle tandem in the league, the Vikings traded for Pro Bowl DE Jared Allen. The sky is the limit for this team.

3rd and Long Projected Record: 11-5 (Over)

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

2007 Record: 4-12
Notable Additions: RB Michael Turner, K Jason Elam, DT Grady Jackson
Notable Losses: CB DeAngelo Hall, TE Alge Crumpler, RB Warrick Dunn, CB Von Hutchins (IR), LB Demorrio Williams, QB Joey Harrington
Draft Picks (Round):

(1) Matt Ryan, QB Boston College
(1) Sam Baker, OT USC
(2) Curtis Lofton, LB Oklahoma
(3) Chevis Jackson, CB LSU
(3) Harry Douglas, WR Louisville
(3) Thomas DeCoud, S California
(5) Robert James, LB Arizona State
(5) Kroy Biermann, LB Montana
(6) Thomas Brown, RB Georgia
(7) Wilrey Fontenot, CB Arizona
(7) Keith Zinger, TE LSU

Vegas total: 4 ½

The Falcons are still suffering from a post-Michael Vick hangover. Joey Harrington wasn’t the answer. Neither was Chris Redmond nor Byron Leftwich. The Falcons spent their first round draft pick on QB Matt Ryan and anointed him as the starter following training camp. When a team chooses a rookie to be their starter, they are prepared to lose in the short term. The Falcons are preparing for the future and their record will reflect that.

3rd and Long Projected Record: 5-11

Carolina Panthers

2007 Record: 7-9
Notable Additions: WR Muhsin Muhammad, WR D.J. Hackett
Notable Losses: DE Mike Rucker, RB DeShaun Foster, WR Keary Colbert, WR Drew Carter
Draft Picks (Round):

(1) Jonathan Stewart, RB Oregon
(1) Jeff Otah, OT Pittsburgh
(3) Charles Godfrey, CB Iowa
(3) Dan Connor, LB Penn State
(5) Gary Barnidge, TE Louisville
(6) Nick Hayden, DT Wisconsin
(7) Hilee Taylor, LB North Carolina
(7) Geoff Schwartz, G Oregon
(7) Mackenzy Bernadeau, G Bentley

Vegas total: 8

Jake Delhomme’s health is the key to the Panthers’ success. David Carr, Matt Moore and Vinny Testaverde were all called on to fill in for the Great Jake last year and the Panthers still managed seven wins. The wide receiver corps will be much improved this year with the additions of Muhsin Muhammad and D.J. Hackett. They should be a borderline playoff team unless Steve Smith beats up more of his teammates.

3rd and Long Projected Record: 9-7 (Over)

New Orleans Saints

2007 Record: 7-9
Notable Additions: TE Jeremy Shockey, LB Jonathan Vilma, CB Randall Gay
Notable Losses:
Draft Picks (Round):

(1) Sedrick Ellis, DT USC
(2) Tracy Porter, CB Indiana
(5) DeMario Pressley, DT North Carolina State
(5) Carl Nicks, OT Nebraska
(6) Taylor Mehlhaff, K Wisconsin
(7) Adrian Arrington, WR Michigan

Vegas total: 9

After vastly underachieving last year, I think the Saints will be a force to be reckoned with in 2008. Brees rebounded after a rough start and put up great numbers last year. The acquisition of TE Jeremy Shockey gives Brees another Pro Bowl caliber target to throw to. It’s time for Reggie Bush to prove he can be a dynamic offensive player at the pro level. I just hope he has a bad game if Kim Kardashian shows up to watch him. The defense struggled last season. LB Jonathan Vilma and CB Randall Gay were acquired to help out. The Saints also used their first three draft picks on defensive players. I like this team a lot.

3rd and Long Projected Record: 11-5 (Over)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2007 Record: 9-7
Notable Additions: QB Brian Griese, RB Warrick Dunn
Notable Losses: QB Chris Simms
Draft Picks (Round):

(1) Aqib Talib, CB Kansas
(2) Dexter Jackson, WR Appalachian State
(3) Jeremy Zuttah, G Rutgers
(4) Dre Moore, DT Maryland
(5) Josh Johnson, QB San Diego
(6) Geno Hayes, LB Florida State
(7) Cory Boyd, RB South Carolina

Vegas total: 8 ½

The Buccaneers won’t make the playoffs this year. Their success in 2007 was partly a product of the Saints’ disappointing season. I don’t think Jeff Garcia and Joey Galloway can produce the way they did last year. The NFC South isn’t good enough to send two teams to the playoffs. Sorry Bucs.

3rd and Long Projected Record: 8-8 (Under)

Well, that does it for my team-by-team previews. The regular season gets underway tomorrow night with a battle of NFC East foes.

I'll be back tomorrow and I'll be introducing the newest contributor to the 3rd and Long blog.

Stay tuned,

3rd and Long

2008 NFL Team-by-team Preview: AFC Edition

2008-09-02T11:55:00.000-07:00

It is time...time for the 3rd and Long NFL preview and my team win total prediction versus Vegas'. The season kicks off Thursday night and my team previews will get you prepared for the next six months.

Read, absorb and thank me later.

Here's the AFC...

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

2007 Record: 7-9
Notable Additions: DT Marcus Stroud, LB Kawika Mitchell
Notable Losses: TE Michael Gaines, WR Peerless Price, RB Anthony Thomas
Draft Picks (Round):

(1) Leodis McKelvin, CB Troy
(2) James Hardy, WR Indiana
(3) Chris Ellis, LB Virginia Tech
(4) Reggie Corner, CB Akron
(4) Derek Fine, TE Kansas
(5) Alvin Bowen, LB Iowa State
(6) Xavier Omon, RB Northwest Missouri State
(7) Demetrius Bell, OT Northwestern State
(7) Steve Johnson, WR Kentucky
(7) Kennard Cox, CB Pittsburgh

Vegas total: 7 ½

The Bills were a deceiving 7-9 last year and should have 8-8 if not for an improbable comeback by the Cowboys on a Monday night in October. Assuming health, Trent Edwards will get nod at quarterback over J.P. Losman. I don’t think Marshawn Lynch will suffer from the dreading “sophomore jinx” as long he continues to play skee-ball and frequent Applebee’s. Their defense is slightly underrated and should be better with the addition of Marcus Stroud and Kawika Mitchell. They’re just not quite good enough to make the playoffs in the AFC.

3rd and Long Projected Record: 8-8 (Over)

Miami Dolphins

2007 Record: 1-15
Notable Additions: QB Chad Pennington, LB Reggie Torbor, LB Akin Ayodele, DT Jason Ferguson, TE Anthony Fasano
Notable Losses: DE Jason Taylor, LB Zach Thomas, WR Marty Booker, RB Lorenzo Booker
Draft Picks (Round):

(1) Jake Long, OT Michigan
(2) Phillip Merling, DE Clemson
(2) Chad Henne, QB Michigan
(3) Kendall Langford, DE Hampton
(4) Shawn Murphy, OT Utah State
(6) Jalen Parmele, RB Toledo
(6) Donald Thomas, G Connecticut
(6) Lex Hilliard, RB Montana
(7) Lionel Dotson, DE Arizona

Vegas total: 5 ½

I’m going to go out on a limb here and say the Dolphins will more double last year’s win total. Actually, I think they will quadruple it. The Jets acquired Brett Favre forcing them to release Chad Pennington. Pennington was quickly reunited Bill Parcells. (Just a friendly reminder; Tony Sporano is indeed the head coach, not Big Bill.) Pennington has been named the Week 1 starter beating out John Beck and one of the McCown brothers. Our favorite pot smoking running back, Ricky Williams, has risen to #1 on the depth chart. Ronnie Brown will probably buy him some mary jane in an effort to regain the starting job. Needless to say, they will suck, just not as bad as last year.

3rd and Long Projected Record: 4-12 (Under)

New England Patriots

2007 Record: 16-0
Notable Additions: RB LaMont Jordan, CB Deltha O’Neal
Notable Losses: CB Asante Samuel, CB Randall Gay, WR Donte’ Stallworth, LB Rosevelt Colvin, CB Eugene Wilson
Draft Picks (Round):

(1) Jerod Mayo, LB Tennessee
(2) Terrence Wheatley, CB Colorado
(3) Shawn Crable, LB Michigan
(3) Kevin O’Connell, QB San Diego State
(4) Jonathan Wilhite, CB Auburn
(5) Matt Slater, WR UCLA
(6) Bo Ruud, LB Nebraska

Vegas total: 12 ½

If I’m not mistaken, the Patriots went 16-0 during the regular season last year. The Super Bowl runner-up has historically struggled the following year, but I don’t see this happening to the fightin’ Belicheats. I will never predict a team to go 16-0 because it’s usually unrealistic in the NFL. Having said that, the Pats will probably be the best team in the league again this year. Tom Brady + Randy Moss = Lots of wins

3rd and Long Projected Record: 13-3 (Over)

New York Jets

2007 Record: 4-12
Notable Additions: QB Brett Favre, DT Kris Jenkins, G Alan Faneca, G Damien Woody, LB Calvin Pace, FB Tony Richardson, TE Bubba Franks, RB Jesse Chatman
Notable Losses: QB Chad Pennington, WR Justin McCareins, LB Jonathan Vilma, CB Andre Dyson, DT Dewayne Robertson
Draft Picks (Round):

(1) Vernon Gholston, DE Ohio State
(1) Dustin Keller, TE Purdue
(4) Dwight Lowery, CB San Jose State
(5) Erik Ainge, QB Tennessee
(6) Marcus Henry, WR Kansas
(7) Nate Garner, OT Arkansas

Vegas total: 8

The Jets will be much better in 2008. In case you didn’t hear, Brett Favre decided he still wanted to play and was swiftly and seemingly under the radar traded to the Jets. Seriously though, Favre is a huge addition to this team. He will open up the field which will make Thomas Jones’ life much easier. The addition of Tony Richardson gives Jones a proven fullback to run behind. Richardson made the Pro Bowl last year blocking for Adrian Peterson. They beefed up the offense line with the additions of Alan Faneca and Damien Woody and also added NT Kris Jenkins to anchor the interior of the defensive line. Calvin Pace immediately fills the hole at linebacker left by All-Pro Jonathan Vilma. Wow. I just channeled my inner Ron Jaworski.

3rd and Long Projected Record: 10-6 (Over)

AFC West

Denver Broncos

2007 Record: 7-9
Notable Additions: WR Darrell Jackson, WR Keary Colbert, RB Michael Pittman, LB Niko Koutouvides, LB Boss Bailey, S Marlon McCree, C Casey Wiegmann
Notable Losses: K Jason Elam, S John Lynch, RB Travis Henry, RB Mike Bell, WR Rod Smith, WR Javon Walker, C Chris Myers
Draft Picks (Round):

(1) Ryan Clady, OT Boise State
(2) Eddie Royal, WR Virginia Tech
(4) Kory Lichtensteiger, C Bowling Green
(4) Jack Williams, CB Kent State
(5) Ryan Torain, RB Arizona State
(5) Carlton Powell, DT Virginia Tech
(6) Spencer Larson, LB Arizona
(7) Josh Barrett, SS Arizona State
(7) Peyton Hillis, FB Arkansas

Vegas total: 7 ½

The Broncos picked a good time to get rid of Javon Walker. He supposedly had to be talked out of retirement after being grossly overpaid by the Raiders. Father of many, Travis Henry, was also not retained along with long-time Broncos kicker Jason Elam, safety John Lynch. This team is focused on youth and I think that their 2008 record will reflect that.

3rd and Long Projected Record: 7-9 (Under)

Kansas City Chiefs

2007 Record: 4-12
Notable Additions: WR Devard Darling, LB Demorrio Williams, FB Oliver Hoyte, K Nick Novak
Notable Losses: DE Jared Allen, WR Eddie Kennison, WR Samie Parker, WR Eddie Drummond, CB Ty Law
Draft Picks (Round):

(1) Glenn Dorsey, OT LSU
(1) Branden Albert, OG Virginia Tech
(2) Brandon Flowers, CB Virginia Tech
(3) Jamaal Charles, RB Texas
(3) Brad Cottam, TE Tennessee
(3) DaJuan Morgan, SS North Carolina State
(4) William Franklin, WR Missouri
(5) Brandon Carr, CB Grand Valley State
(6) Barry Richardson, OT Clemson
(6) Kevin Johnson, WR Utah State
(7) Brian Johnston, DE Gardner-Webb
(7) Mike Merritt, TE Central Florida

Vegas total: 5 ½

The Chiefs #1 prospect is definitely Brodie Croyle’s wife. Having that said, the Chiefs’ 2007 campaign was a disaster. They traded their best player, DE Jared Allen, to the Vikings for 37 draft picks. I think Larry Johnson will bounce back after an “injury” plagued season last year. The Chiefs are far too inexperienced to win many games in the NFL.

3rd and Long Projected Record: 4-12 (Under)

Oakland Raiders

2007 Record: 4-12
Notable Additions: CB DeAngelo Hall, WR Javon Walker, WR Drew Carter, S Gibril Wilson, T Kwame Harris, WR Ashley Lelie
Notable Losses: RB LaMont Jordan, RB Dominic Rhodes, WR Jerry Porter, DT Warren Sapp
Draft Picks (Round):

(1) Darren McFadden, RB Arkansas
(4) Tyvon Branch, CB Connecticut
(4) Arman Shields, WR Richmond
(6) Trevor Scott, DE Buffalo
(7) Chaz Schilens, WR San Diego State

Vegas total: 6

Jamarcus Russell should be better this year mainly because he actually participated in training camp. He has skills and they won’t look nearly as raw as they did last year. The Raiders will play running back by committee with Darren McFadden, Michael Bush and Justin Fargas. I’m pretty sure Al Davis is older than those three running backs and Jamarcus…combined. I also think Davis is becoming senile with all the money he spent on WR Javon Walker and CB DeAngelo Hall. They’ll be better, but that’s not saying much.

3rd and Long Projected Record: 6-10 (Push)

San Diego Chargers

2007 Record: 11-5
Notable Additions: LB Derek Smith
Notable Losses: RB Michael Turner, CB Drayton Florence, FB Lorenzo Neal, WR Eric Parker
Draft Picks (Round):

(1) Antoine Cason, CB Arizona
(3) Jacob Hester, FB LSU
(5) Marcus Thomas, RB UTEP
(6) DeJuan Tribble, CB Boston College
(7) Corey Clark, OT Texas A&M

Vegas total: 10 ½

Even though I don’t like Phillip Rivers, he really stepped it up late last year after a rough start. Look for him to emerge as the Chargers’ vocal leader. LT is a stud, enough said. Shawne Merriman is an idiot if he doesn’t have the surgery that four different doctors recommended and decides to play in 2008. Antonio Cromartie had a spectacular 2007 season, just ask Peyton Manning. They will be in the hunt. Super Bowl?

3rd and Long Projected Record: 12-4 (Over)

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

2007 Record: 5-11
Notable Additions: CB Fabian Washington, CB Frank Walker, LB Brendon Ayanbadejo, FB Lorenzo Neal
Notable Losses: QB Steve McNair, T Jonathan Ogden, CB B.J. Sams
Draft Picks (Round):

(1) Joe Flacco, QB Delaware
(2) Ray Rice, RB Rutgers
(3) Tavares Gooden, OLB Miami (FL)
(3) Tom Zbikowski, FS Notre Dame
(3) Oniel Cousins, DT UTEP
(4) Marcus Smith, WR New Mexico
(4) David Hale, OT Weber State
(6) Haruki Nakamura, FS Cincinnati
(7) Justin Harper, WR Virginia Tech
(7) Allen Patrick, RB Oklahoma

Vegas total: 6

Looks like another down year for the Ravens. The quarterback situation is below average at best. Can they win many games with Joe Flacco? What about Troy Smith? Kyle Boller? Their once stellar defense is on the decline and showing its age. Add to that a pretty difficult schedule (@ Indy, @ Dallas, @ NY Giants, Jacksonville) and this season could get ugly.

3rd and Long Projected Record: 4-12 (Under)

Cincinnati Bengals

2007 Record: 7-9
Notable Additions: DE Antwan Odom, TE Ben Utecht
Notable Losses: RB Rudi Johnson, DE Justin Smith, C Alex Stepanovich, RB Kenny Irons, CB Deltha O’Neal
Draft Picks (Round):

(1) Keith Rivers, LB USC
(2) Jerome Simpson, WR Coastal Carolina
(3) Pat Sims, DT Auburn
(3) Andre Caldwell, WR Florida
(4) Anthony Collins, OT Kansas
(5) Jason Shirley, DT Fresno State
(6) Corey Lynch, S Appalachian State
(6) Matt Sherry, TE Villanova
(7) Angelo Craig, DE Cincinnati
(7) Mario Urrutia, WR Louisville

Vegas total: 7 ½

Who really cares about Bengals personnel? My favorite Bengals story is about Chad Johnson…I mean Chad Ocho Cinco. Yes, it’s true. The wide receiver formerly known as Chad Johnson had his name legally changed to Chad Ocho Cinco to be able to wear “Ocho Cinco” on the back of his jersey and avoid getting fined. For those who care, the Bengals cut RB Rudi Johnson and re-signed WR Chris Henry.

3rd and Long Projected Record: 7-9 (Under)

Cleveland Browns

2007 Record: 10-6
Notable Additions: WR Donte’ Stallworth, DT Corey Williams, DT Shaun Rogers
Notable Losses: C LeCharles Bentley
Draft Picks (Round):

(4) Beau Bell, LB UNLV
(4) Martin Rucker, TE Missouri
(6) Ahtyba Rubin, DT Iowa State
(6) Paul Hubbard, WR Wisconsin
(7) Alex Hall, LB St. Augustine’s (N.C.)

Vegas total: 8

I’m not sold on the Browns. I just have a feeling that last could have been a fluke. They made an effort to improve the defense this offseason by signing DTs Corey Williams and Shaun Rogers, but it won’t be enough. A tough schedule will show who the “real” Browns are.

3rd and Long Projected Record: 7-9 (Under)

Pittsburgh Steelers

2007 Record: 10-6
Notable Additions: C Justin Hartwig, RB Mewelde Moore, P Paul Ernster
Notable Losses: WR Cedrick Wilson, RB Najeh Davenport, LB Clark Haggans
Draft Picks (Round):

(1) Rashard Mendenhall, RB Illinois
(2) Limas Sweed, WR Texas
(3) Bruce Davis, DE UCLA
(4) Tony Hills, OT Texas
(5) Dennis Dixon, QB Oregon
(6) Mike Humpal, LB Iowa
(6) Ryan Mundy, S West Virginia

Vegas total: 9

I always like the Steelers. I love the way their defense plays and I really like the offensive philosophy brought in by Mike Tomlin. Big Ben will be borderline great in 2008 (I rhymed). The running back will be good with a healthy Willie Parker and rookie Rashard Mendenhall. Watch out for LB James Harrison. He’s my pick for Defensive Player of the Year.

3rd and Long Projected Record: 10-6 (Over)

AFC South

Houston Texans

2007 Record: 8-8
Notable Additions: RB Chris Brown, RB Mike Bell, C Chris Myers, CB Jacques Reeves
Notable Losses: TE Jeb Putzier, CB Von Hutchins, C Mike Flanagan
Draft Picks (Round):

(1) Duane Brown, OT Virginia Tech
(3) Antwaun Molden, CB Eastern Kentucky
(3) Steve Slaton, RB West Virginia
(4) Xavier Adibi, LB Virginia Tech
(5) Frank Okam, DT Texas
(6) Dominique Barber, S Minnesota
(7) Alex Brink, QB Washington State

Vegas total: 7 ½

The Texans were average last year and don’t see this changing in 2008. If Matt Schaub can’t stay healthy, he might lose his job. Backup QB Sage Rosenfels played very good in Schaub’s absence. WR Andre Johnson is one of the most underrated players in the league. A young defensive core gives them a solid base to build from. The bad news is they play in the stacked AFC South.

3rd and Long Projected Record: 8-8 (Over)

Indianapolis Colts

2007 Record: 13-3
Notable Additions: RB Dominic Rhodes
Notable Losses: TE Ben Utecht, DT Anthony McFarland, LB Rob Morris, TE Bryan Fletcher, G Jake Scott, LB Rocky Boiman
Draft Picks (Round):

(2) Mike Pollak, C Arizona State
(3) Philip Wheeler, LB Georgia Tech
(4) Jacob Tamme, TE Kentucky
(5) Marcus Howard, LB Georgia
(6) Tom Santi, TE Virginia
(6) Steve Justice, C Wake Forest
(6) Mike Hart, RB Michigan
(6) Pierre Garcon, WR Mount Union
(7) Jamey Richard, C Buffalo

Vegas total: 11

Don’t worry, Peyton will be fine. His knee wasn’t injured, it was infected. He knows that offense better than anybody. He may look rusty for a couple of series, but he’ll be okay. This is pretty much the same team as last year, but I don’t see the same regular season success mainly because of the more difficult schedule. If you have Peyton Manning, you’ll be pretty good.

3rd and Long Projected Record: 11-5 (Push)

Jacksonville Jaguars

2007 Record: 11-5
Notable Additions: WR Jerry Porter, CB Drayton Florence, QB Cleo Lemon
Notable Losses: WR Ernest Wilford, S Sammy Knight, QB Quinn Gray
Draft Picks (Round):

(1) Derrick Harvey, DE Florida
(2) Quentin Groves, LB Auburn
(5) Thomas Williams, LB USC
(5) Trae Williams, CB South Florida
(7) Chauncey Washington, RB USC

Vegas total: 10

Last year, QB David Garrard proved that Jack Del Rio made the right call choosing him over Byron Leftwich as the starter. With a great defense and running game and an improving passing game, the Jaguars will make the playoffs again in 2008. I’m not sure if it will be as a wild card or AFC South champion, but they will definitely give the Colts a run for their money.

3rd and Long Projected Record: 11-5 (Over)

Tennessee Titans

2007 Record: 10-6
Notable Additions: TE Alge Crumpler, DE Jevon Kearse, WR Justin McCareins, G Jake Scott, WR Roydell Williams
Notable Losses: CB Adam Jones, RB Chris Brown, WR David Givens, TE Ben Troupe, DE Travis LaBoy
Draft Picks (Round):

(1) Chris Johnson, RB East Carolina
(2) Jason Jones, DT Eastern Michigan
(3) Craig Stevens, TE California
(4) William Hayes, DE Winston Salem
(4) Lavelle Hawkins, WR California
(4) Stanford Keglar, LB Purdue
(7) Cary Williams, CB Washburn

Vegas total: 8

Sorry Titans fans, no playoffs this year. You cannot make it through a season with a one-dimensional offense. Vince Young needs to improve his passing before they make the playoffs again. Keep an eye on rookie RB Chris Johnson. He is extremely fast and explosive.

3rd and Long Projected Record: 8-8 (Push)

That's a wrap on the AFC. Check back tomorrow for the NFC preview.

-3rd and Long

3rd and Long Playoff Edition

2008-01-10T18:04:00.000-08:00

First Round Reflections:

It wasn't too crazy of a first round. Seattle controlled the first three quarters of their game against Washington, but after a few miscues they trailed 14-13 in the 4th quarter. Seattle responded with 22 4th quarter points and sealed a 35-14 victory. I had a feeling Seattle would take down Washington with ease, simply because Washington had been overachieving and Seattle was at home. Seattle's victory earned them a trip to Green Bay in January.

The other Saturday game was Jacksonville at Pittsburgh. A few weeks back, Jacksonville traveled to Pittsburgh and on a snowy afternoon and handed the Steelers their first home loss of the season. The Jaguars had a 21-7 halftime lead which they turned into a 28-10 3rd quarter lead. Pittsburgh made it interesting in the 4th quarter, but Jacksonville got a late field goal from Josh Scobee and held on to win 31-29. Jacksonville now has to take on the unbeaten Patriots.

The New York Giants traveled to Tampa Bay for the early Sunday game. The Buccaneers looked great in their first drive, but that was the only time they would find the end zone until late in the 4th quarter. The Giants looked crisp and Eli played very well. New York must now travel to Dallas to take a Cowboys team that beat them twice already this year.

The late game featured a matchup between the Titans and Chargers. This was a defensive battle...eh...actually, just a boring game. The Titans could not move the ball all day, but somehow had a 6-0 lead at halftime. The Chargers found some offense in the second half and won the game 17-6. Their victory landed them a date with the Colts.

Second Round Previews:

Seahawks at Packers

The only way I see Seattle winning this game is if they win the turnover battle by four. Favre has to play terrible and Seattle has to establish a running game. I don't see either happening. Seattle has been pretty bad on the road this year (3-5), and now they have to go to Green Bay in January. This seems to be a recipe for disaster. Other than Favre who is in his 47th season, the Packers have basically no playoff experience. I don't see this coming into play. Seattle's defense won't be able to slow down Favre unless he is hurried every down. Seattle may keep it close in the first half, but Green Bay will roll.

Green Bay 31, Seattle 14

Jaguars at Patriots

There's not much to say about the Patriots expect that they're simply incredible, but they are beatable. The Jaguars will have to play the game of their life to beat the Patriots. The Jags have shown they can put points board with the best of them and will probably take 35 for the Jags to have a chance. Jacksonville is a very physical team, but no one has shown the ability to stop the Pats. How cool would it be to see the undefeated Pats lose their first playoff game? Too bad it won't happen.

New England 38, Jacksonville 27

Chargers at Colts

This Chargers team is very unimpressive. Philip Rivers almost seems like a liability. He makes poor decisions and he doesn't look like he is progressing. LT is obviously the man, but nobody is consistently successful when running into an eight man front. Also if Antonio Gates is out, this offense will suffer a major setback. Marvin Harrison will be back which will allow the Colts to be more creative on offense. The Colts defense is much better than last season and it will show Sunday.

Indianapolis 33, San Diego 14

Giants at Cowboys

Tony Romo vs Eli Manning. This game will come down to QB play. Everyone is talking about how Jessica Simpson is going to distract Tony. Hell, I'm distracted by Jessica. I've spent more time on celebrity blogs (wwtdd.com is a high quality blog) than sports blogs this week. But Tony is a competitor and he will be 100% focused on Sunday's game. I'm confident T.O. will be effective, but I have no idea what to expect from Terry Glenn. The Cowboys have to establish enough of a running game to be able to sell the play action. Eli is always a question mark. He's played well lately, but you never know with him. The Giants have to have a spectacular game rushing the QB. The sexy pick of the week is the Giants and the public is all over this Giants team. That's why my pick is...

Dallas 41, New York 20

Yes I know, no upsets.

Enjoy this great weekend.

-CRS

Breaking down the Pro Bowl rosters...NFC Edition

2007-12-18T19:07:00.000-08:00

I know every one of you were anxiously awaiting 3:00 p.m. central Dec. 18 for the much anticipated release of 2008 Pro Bowl rosters. I personally think the unveiling of the rosters is kind of intriguing. Players are selected by the fans, coaches and fellow players. Each party accounts for one-third of the vote. For the most part, they seem to get things right, but no system is flawless (unless of course, it is designed by me). I have a few issues with this year's selections, so let's break it down by conference and position.

Let's start with the NFC...

Quarterbacks:

Starter: Brett Favre (Green Bay)
Reserves: Matt Hasselbeck (Seattle), Tony Romo (Dallas)

Breakdown: You can't really argue with these selections considering how bad the QB position in the NFL is, but I can definitely argue with the starter selection. I know Favre is one of the greatest to ever take a snap and he's breaking career records every week, but the only reason he's the starter is his legacy. Statistically, he's the second best NFC QB in 2007. Tony Romo has nine more touchdowns and a better passer rating. Plus, Romo is on the better team. The Cowboys control their own destiny to have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and they beat the Packers on Nov. 29.

Running backs:

Starter: Adrian Peterson (Minnesota)
Reserves: Marion Barber (Dallas), Brian Westbrook (Philadelphia)

Breakdown: Adrian Peterson is a no brainer as the starter. He's leading the NFC in rushing yards despite missing two games with a knee injury. So far this year, he has set the NFL single game record for rushing yards in a game (296) and he has three games in which he averaged more than nine yards per carry. He also leads the league in yards per carry with 5.9 (minimum 100 carries). As for the reserves, Westbrook is the most underrated player in the NFL and is one of the best running backs, no questions asked. He can do it all...run, catch, block, return kicks. On top of averaging 91.6 rushing yards per game, he is also averaging 50.4 receiving yards per game. You name it, he can do it. Marion Barber's stats will not wow you, but he is definitely one of the hardest runners in the league. He never avoids a hit, he seeks out the hit. There's not another running back in the league I'd rather have on third and one. With that said, you could also make a case for Clinton Portis or maybe Edgerrin James, but overall the NFC sucks in the backfield.

Fullback:

Starter: Tony Richardson (Minnesota)

Breakdown: Fullback is one of the most anonymous positions in football. These guys can have a huge impact on any given play. Richardson is the lead blocker for the most prolific rushing attack in the league today. The Vikings are averaging a league best 169.6 rushing yards per game behind Richardson. No arguments here.

Wide Receivers:

Starters: Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona), Terrell Owens (Dallas)
Reserves: Donald Driver (Green Bay), Torry Holt (St. Louis)

Breakdown: Terrell Owens is an obvious selection. He leads the NFC in yards and touchdowns and is the best receiver on the best team in the NFC. Larry Fitzgerald is second in the NFC in yards and has eight touchdowns thus far. Very respectable selection. As for the backups, I have some issues. While Donald Driver and Torry Holt are very good players, how do you leave out Marques Colston? He's third in the NFC in yards, has nine touchdowns and 87 catches. I would definitely put him in over Holt and keep Driver as a reserve.

Tight ends:

Starter: Jason Witten (Dallas)
Reserve: Chris Cooley (Washington)

Breakdown: These selections are perfect. Witten leads the league in receiving yards for tight ends and is on the best team in the NFC. He is quickly becoming the best tight end in the NFL. Chris Cooley has emerged as a great pass catching tight end. He was Jason Campbell's favorite target until Campbell's season was cut short by a knee injury. In a conference lacking in quality tight ends, Witten and Cooley are great selections.

Offensive line:

Starting tackles: Flozell Adams (Dallas), Walter Jones (Seattle)
Reserve tackle: Chris Samuels (Washington)
Starting guards: Leonard Davis (Dallas), Steve Hutchinson (Minnesota)
Reserve guard: Shawn Andrews (Philadelphia)
Starting center: Andre Gurode (Dallas)
Reserve center: Matt Birk (Minnesota)

Breakdown: I'm not an expert on offensive lineman, but I've seen these guys play a lot and they all seem pretty dominant. I've watched every game the three Cowboys have played and they're much improved from last season (just check the record). Jones and Samuels are both proven veterans and highly thought of throughout the league. Birk and Hutchinson lead the way for league's most prolific rushing attack and Andrews, a former first-round pick, is quickly becoming a star. These selections seem to be right on.

Defensive ends:

Starters: Patrick Kerney (Seattle), Aaron Kampman (Green Bay)
Reserve: Osi Umenyiora (New York Giants)

Breakdown: Kerney leads the league in sacks (13.5) and is having a career year. The Seahawks have had a streaky season, but already have the NFC West wrapped up and could be a sleeper entering the playoffs. Kampman is third in the NFC in sacks (12.0) and has played a big role in the improvement of Green Bay's defense. Umenyiora has posted 12 sacks this season (six of which came in one game against the Eagles). The only selection that I have a problem with is Umenyiora. I would have chosen Trent Cole of the Eagles. Cole has more sacks and more tackles. I realize Cole is on the worse team, but I think his individual performance this season is worthy of a selection.

Defensive tackles:

Starters: Kevin Williams (Minnesota), Pat Williams (Minnesota)
Reserve: Tommie Harris (Chicago)

Breakdown: This is easy. Kevin and Pat Williams are by far the most dominant defensive tackle tandem in the league, just check the stats. Run up the middle at your own risk. Harris is the best player on Bears, expect for maybe Devin Hester. Worthy selection. There's one thing I don't quite understand. Why isn't there a spot for a true 3-4 nose tackle? I understand that the base defense in the Pro Bowl is a standard 4-3, but you would think they could accommodate some 3-4 sets. Just a thought.

Outside linebackers:

Starters: Julian Peterson (Seattle), DeMarcus Ware (Dallas)
Reserve: Lance Briggs (Chicago)

Breakdown: Peterson has collected nine sacks and 68 tackles (58 solo). He is having a phenomenal year and deserves this selection. Ware is arguably the best defensive player in the league. Not only does he have 11.0 sacks, he also has 75 tackles, 54 of which are solo. He is really flourishing in the Phillips' 3-4. Great selection. I'm not a fan of the Briggs pick. I know he has 95 tackles, but he hasn't impressed me. The Bears defense is a fraud. I'd give the spot to Greg Ellis and his 11.5 sacks.

Inside linebackers:

Starter: Lofa Tatupu (Seattle)
Reserve: Patrick Willis (San Francisco)

Breakdown: Tatupu and the aforementioned Peterson are huge contributors to Seattle and its defense's success. Tatupu has racked up 101 tackles (78 solo), three forced fumbles, four picks and a sack. Much deserved. Willis is going to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. This kid has unlimited potential. He already has 142 tackles (111 solo), a sack, a forced fumble and three pass deflections. These selections are perfect.

Cornerbacks:

Starters: Al Harris (Green Bay), Marcus Trufant (Seattle)
Reserve: Terence Newman (Dallas)

Breakdown: Harris is one of the most physical corners in the league. He and Charles Woodson make up one of the best duos of cornerbacks in the league. With four picks, nine pass deflections and a touchdown, Harris is deserving of this spot. Trufant is also having a great year. He is second in the league with seven picks, one of which he took to paydirt. These two definitely deserve the honor. As for the reserve spot, it's kind of a crapshoot. No one really stands out as a no-brainer pick. Newman is a somewhat logical pick. He's a good corner on a great team, might as well pick him.

Free safety:

Starter: Sean Taylor (R.I.P.)
Reserve: Ken Hamlin (Dallas)

Breakdown: Fitting tribute to vote in Taylor who tragically left us much too early. Hamlin will get the start in Taylor's place. Hamlin has five picks, 58 tackles (38 solo) and 13 pass deflections. I think Oshiomogho Atogwe (let's call him OA) of the Rams should be invited as the reserve. OA is having a spectacular year. He's racked up 70 tackles (62 solo), seven picks and nine pass deflections. OA should get the call.

Strong safety:

Starter: Darren Sharper (Minnesota)

Breakdown: Nice honor for a classy guy. He's got 51 tackles (40 solo), four picks, a forced fumble and six pass deflections. Well deserved.

Punter: Andy Lee (San Francisco)
Placekicker: Nick Folk (Dallas)
Kick returner: Devin Hester
Special teamer: Brendon Ayanbadejo (Chicago)

Breakdown: Lee is averaging 48.3 yards per punt and has 35 punts downed inside the 20. Nice pick I guess.
It came down to Folk and Green Bay's Mason Crosby (both rookies). Folk has a better make percentage, but Crosby has more makes. Folk wears a CZ ear stud, let's go with him.
Hester is the easiest selection out there. The only question is, will Belicheck kick to him? Ya that's right, I said Belicheck. The Pats will lose in the AFC Championship game.
Kudos to Brendon Ayanbadejo.

That wraps up the NFC Edition. Stay tuned for the AFC Edition.

Happy Holidays from 3rd and Long.

-CRS

3rd and Long Power Rankings for Week 7

2007-10-18T10:09:00.000-07:00

I'm in the process of coming up with a mathematical way to calculate power rankings...until then here are my updated rankings.

1. New England Patriots (1)- It's pretty crazy when a team with this much talent plays with a chip on their shoulder.

2. Indianapolis Colts (2)- BIG test Monday night at Jacksonville.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (4)- They're playing Denver off a bye week...may get ugly.

4. Dallas Cowboys (3)- New England exposed some of their weaknesses. That game was a good in-season reality check for the 'Boys.

5. Jacksonville Jaguars (6)- We'll see how good this team really is Monday night.

6. Green Bay Packers (7)- Nice hard fought victory over an emerging Redskins team.

7. San Diego Chargers (8)- LT is back...Rivers is regressing.

8. Washington Redskins (10)- They should feast on the Cards this weekend.

9. Tennessee Titans (9)- Tough loss in Tampa Bay after Vince went down.

10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11)- At Detroit. Fantasy owners should definitely start any Buccaneer.

11. New York Giants (14)- They're on fire and it should continue this weekend when they host San Francisco.

12. Seattle Seahawks (5)- Huge disappointment. They better not lose to St. Louis.

13. Philadelphia Eagles (13)- Ugly win against the Jets. They host the struggling Bears.

14. Chicago Bears (16)- They have to shut down Westbrook if they want a chance to win.

15. Houston Texans (12)- Injuries are killing them.

16. Carolina Panthers (15)- Vinny Testaverde is immortal.

17. Arizona Cardinals (17)- Bring on Tim Rattay!

18. Detroit Lions (18)- No Clue.

19. Denver Broncos (19)- Javon Walker is out indefinitely. Cutler looks bad. Can't stop the run.

20. Baltimore Ravens (21)- Matt Stover is their biggest scoring threat...hmmm.

21. Cleveland Browns (24)- Interesting squad. They will get a reality check soon.

22. Minnesota Vikings (25)- Adrian is a freak. Let's see how he fares against the Dallas D.

23. Cincinnati Bengals (20)- This team is bad. They will be terrible if they lose to the Jets.

24. New York Jets (22)- Still no Kellen?

25. Oakland Raiders (23)- Ehhh...they're decent.

26. New Orleans Saints (30)- Improving...but they have to beat Atlanta.

27. Kansas City Chiefs (28)- Deceivingly decent.

28. San Francisco 49ers (26)- They will get their butts kicked Sunday.

29. Buffalo Bills (29)- Boring.

30. Atlanta Falcons (27)- Finally...BYRON!

31. Miami Dolphins (31)- They have to win eventually...

32. St. Louis Rams (32)- They have to win eventually...

That does it for my updated Power Rankings. PLEASE, share your thoughts. Either comment or e-mail: chris@3rdandlongblog.com

Peace,

3rd and Long

3rd and Long Power Rankings for Week 6

2007-10-13T21:04:00.000-07:00

Here are my updated Power Rankings...

1. New England Patriots (1)- Still dominant. They have a big test in Dallas this weekend.

2. Indianapolis Colts (2)- Without five starters they still beat Tampa Bay 33-14. As long as they have Peyton, they will win a lot.

3. Dallas Cowboys (3)- Hmmm...that was ugly and beautiful at the same time. Romo got a reality check. They need to step it up at home against New England.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (5)- The Steelers showed the AFC's superiority in their 21-0 shutout of Seattle.

5. Seattle Seahawks (4)- Still one of the best teams in the NFC.

6. Jacksonville Jaguars (8)- They're progressing fine on the offensive side of the ball and the defense is still great. They should get a nice division win over Houston this week.

7. Green Bay Packers (6)- Not having a running game caught up with them against the Bears. You have to be able to sit on a 10 point lead.

8. San Diego Chargers (16)- They finally looked like last year's team. Nice and much needed 41-3 victory over Denver.

9. Tennessee Titans (9)- Definitely their worst game of the season against Atlanta, but Vince is a winner.

10. Washington Redskins (12)- Big test against Green Bay this weekend. I think they can pull it off.

11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7)- Even though they took a beating, they're still a pretty good team. Still need to find stability in the backfield.

12. Houston Texans (10)- Kris Brown for MVP!!!

13. Philadelphia Eagles (13)- Just had a much needed bye week. Good chance to heal up, regroup and prepare for the Jets.

14. New York Giants (14)- Nice victory over the Jets. Offense looks good. Defense looks good. We'll see if they can keep it up in Monday Night showdown in Atlanta.

15. Carolina Panthers (15)- Vinny Testaverde to the rescue!

16. Chicago Bears (21)- Huge victory at Green Bay. Still have some offensive issues.

17. Arizona Cardinals (18)- Leinart is gone for the season. Kurt Warner will set in. This should be interesting.

18. Detroit Lions (11)- I'm speechless.

19. Denver Broncos (17)- Way too many offensive issues to win consistently. Maybe this bye week will help.

20. Cincinnati Bengals (20)- They couldn't be more excited to play a banged up Damon Huard and LJ.

21. Baltimore Ravens (19)- Horrendous offense. Declining defense. Please bench McNair.

22. New York Jets (22)- K - E - L - L - E - N. KELLEN KELLEN KELLEN!

23. Oakland Raiders (24)- I think they can compete against San Diego and yes, they are first in the AFC West.

24. Cleveland Browns (25)- This team isn't that bad. They should beat Miami and improve to .500.

25. Minnesota Vikings (26)- They need a couple years and a couple wide receivers.

26. San Francisco 49ers (29)- Too many offensive woes.

27. Atlanta Falcons (27)- Joey or Byron? Please decide, this isn't college.

28. Kansas City Chiefs (28)- They're just flat out terrible.

29. Buffalo Bills (30)- I know they almost beat Dallas, but their offense only scored three points.

30. New Orleans Saints (23)- They have to win eventually...

31. Miami Dolphins (31)- They have to win eventually...

32. St. Louis Rams (32)- They have to win eventually...don't they?

That does it for my updated Power Rankings. PLEASE, share your thoughts. Either comment or e-mail: chris@3rdandlongblog.com

Peace,

3rd and Long

College picks...

2007-10-12T20:16:00.000-07:00

Will it be Saturday loaded with upsets? This has been a crazy year so far. There are quite a few upset opportunities tomorrow including Mizzou at Oklahoma and LSU at Kentucky just to name a few. Hopefully, it will be a good day of football. (As I am writing this, Hawaii is losing 35-21 in the 4th quarter. Another possible upset.)

Now on to the picks...

Purdue @ Michigan.

-Play Purdue +5.5 for 20 units

Virginia Tech @ Duke.

-Play Duke +14.5 for 20 units

Washington State @ Oregon.

-Play Oregon -19 for 20 units

Boston College @ Notre Dame.

-Play BC -14 for 30 units

Missouri @ Oklahoma.

-Play Over 61 for 20 units

Oregon State @ California.

-Play Over 57 for 20 units

Let's get another winning Saturday. Enjoy.

Peace,

3rd and Long

College picks...

2007-10-05T20:48:00.000-07:00

This is going to be quick...

Here are my picks for tomorrow.

Wisconsin @ Illinois (-3)

-Play Illinois -3 for 20 units

Kansas @ Kansas State (-3)

-Play Kansas State -3 (buy the hook) for 30 units

Georgia (-1) @ Tennessee

-Play Georgia -1 for 20 units

Colorado (-9) @ Baylor

-Play Colorado -9 for 30 units

Ohio State (-7) @ Purdue

-Play Ohio State -7 for 30 units

Nebraska @ Missouri (-6)

-Play Missouri -6 for 20 units

Should be a good day...

Peace,

3rd and Long

3rd and Long Power Rankings for Week 5

2007-10-02T19:26:00.001-07:00

Pretty crazy weekend. Five of the top 10 college teams lost. I thought OU was untouchable and they lost on a last second field goal to Colorado. Florida lost in the the swamp to an Auburn team that until Saturday, could barely get a first down. USC squeaked by Washington and the greatness of Jake Locker. Texas lost, Rutgers lost...heck, half the teams in the nation lost! (I thought it was funny.) It was a Saturday to remember. Alright, on to my post Week 4 Power Rankings.

1. New England Patriots (1)- Still unbelievably good. They embarrassed Cincy.

2. Indianapolis Colts (2)- Peyton is one of a kind. The Colts are unbeatable in September.

3. Dallas Cowboys (4)- Pay Romo. If you haven't seen Romo's 4 yard run that was really 37 yards, check it out.

4. Seattle Seahawks (5)- They played very well in their victory over division-foe San Francisco.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (3)- Yet another victim of a former coordinator versus former team. They're still a top tier team.

6. Green Bay Packers (7)- How are they 4-0? You tell me. Great D, no running game.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13)- This is an interesting team. They looked great in their victory over Carolina. We'll see how they do against Indy.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars (10)- They had a bye in Week 4. David Garrard looks pretty good. Nice D. They have a good matchup against KC this weekend.

9. Tennessee Titans (14)- They also had a bye. Tennessee has a game this weekend that they should win against Atlanta. If they want to be a playoff contender, they need to win games like this.

10. Houston Texans (18)- I know they lost to Atlanta, but they were pretty banged up. The Texans have a chance to be decent this year.

11. Detroit Lions (21)- Very soft D, but an amazing offense. They hung 37 on the Bears, 34 of those points were scored in the 4th quarter alone.

12. Washington Redskins (19)- This team has some potential. We'll see how they fair against Detriot. Good test for the D.

13. Philadelphia Eagles (9)- Wow. How bad did they look Sunday? The O-line got owned and Donovan looked very immobile.

14. New York Giants (17)- They're a weird team. I can't tell if they're good or bad.

15. Carolina Panthers (16)- David Carr is not what this team needs. Hopefully, Delhomme is back soon.

16. San Diego Chargers (8)- Who do you blame more, Norv Turner or A.J. Smith? I say A.J. Why fire a 14-2 head coach?

17. Denver Broncos (11)- Cutler isn't performing like he should be. They have an interesting game against San Diego this weekend.

18. Arizona Cardinals (25)- This D is very underrated. They should win this against a injury plagued Rams team.

19. Baltimore Ravens (6)- This offense looks bad and the D isn't as dominant as they have been in recent years.

20. Cincinnati Bengals (12)- Very dysfunctional. Poor D and regressing O.

21. Chicago Bears (15)- This D looks a little slow this year. Grossman. Griese. Maybe it's time for Kyle Orton.

22. New York Jets (20)- Is this the same Thomas Jones that was on the Bears last year?

23. New Orleans Saints (22)- Hmmm. Maybe they can turn it around after a bye week. Maybe...

24. Oakland Raiders (28)- Daunte's knee looked healed. He was good on the ground, but a little rusty through the air.

25. Cleveland Browns (31)- Bring back Frye! This team looks too good with Derek Anderson. Every Cowboy fan knows what I'm talking about.

26. Minnesota Vikings (23)- Great job drafting Adrian Peterson, but someone needs to teach this guy how to not take so many hard hits.

27. Atlanta Falcons (29)- Joey looked productive. Wow. Joey Harrington, I'd like you to meet Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch.

28. Kansas City Chiefs (32)- They beat the Chargers. Hmmm.

29. San Francisco 49ers (27)- I know Alex Smith has struggled, but this team has no chance with Trent Dilfer.

30. Buffalo Bills (30)- Trent Edwards, meet DeMarcus Ware. Wait...I already used that one.

31. Miami Dolphins (26)- This team looks old.

32. St. Louis Rams (24)- Wow. This team is one big fantasy blunder.

That does it for my updated Power Rankings. Please, share your thoughts. Either comment or e-mail: chris@3rdandlongblog.com

Peace,

3rd and Long

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3rd and Long Power Rankings

2007-09-27T20:44:00.000-07:00

Well, it's Friday afternoon and I have some free time, so I decided to share my NFL Power Rankings. Let's get right into them...

1. New England Patriots- This one is a no-brainer. The Pats are historically good. Tom Brady is probably going to put up the best numbers of his career. Watch out for them.

2. Indianapolis Colts- Defending champs. Enough said. They have Peyton and an improved defense. They host New England in Week 9. Should be interesting.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers- No NFC team yet. Have you seen this new offense they're running? Pretty impressive. More 4 and 5 wide receiver sets and Willie Parker and Ben Roethlisberger look spectacular. Kudos Mike Tomlin. The defense is still good. Keep an eye on them. They may sneak up on some people.

4. Dallas Cowboys- Definitely the best team in the NFC. Tony Romo is costing Jerry Jones more money every week. The running back duo is looking great and T.O. looks like 2005 Philadelphia T.O. New offensive coordinator Jason Garrett is bringing Jason Witten into the offense very nicely. The defense looks kind of soft but no worries...IT'S THE PHILLIPS' 3-4!

5. Seattle Seahawks- I don't know what is about this team I like, but I think they're good. I love the experience of Hasselbeck and Alexander and the chemistry Hasselbeck and Deion Branch are developing is fun to watch. They may not dominate, but I think they can cruise to the playoffs out of the NFC West.

6. Baltimore Ravens- This defense is still the best in the league. McGahee was a nice addition and McNair will be back soon. Keep an eye on KR Yamon Figures...very explosive.

7. Green Bay Packers- 3-0. Crazy huh? Favre looks 27 not 37. They're winning without a decent running game. Spectacular young defense.

8. San Diego Chargers- Who would have thought they would be 1-2? They still have loads of talent. LT will step it up and Rivers will improve. If they can get some momentum, watch out.

9. Philadelphia Eagles- I know they're 1-2, but they are still in my top 10. McNabb is well on his way to being 100% and Brian Westbrook is extremely versatile. Still have a good defense. This is an interesting squad.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars- I like this team a lot. The offense needs to show some improvement and the wide receivers need to step it up. The defense is good. Quick, athletic and full of playmakers. It's tough to win in the AFC.

11. Denver Broncos- I know they've struggled so far this year and they'll probably get beat Sunday, but I still think they have a shot to win their division. Cutler is experiencing a learning curve, but he'll straighten it out. Good D.

12. Cincinnati Bengals- If they had anything that resembled a somewhat competitive defense, they would be in the top 5.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- This team is surprising me. The offense is fairly explosive. Jeff Garcia and Joey Galloway have evidently found the fountain of youth or HGH.

14. Tennessee Titans- Vince Young is a winner. This team can sneak up on a lot of people. I like their chances at contending for the wild card.

15. Chicago Bears- Defense wins championships, Rex Grossman loses football games. Brian Griese can drive the Bears bus to the playoffs.

16. Carolina Panthers- The race in the NFC South could turn out to be interesting. Looks like we'll get to see David Carr Sunday...hmmm.

17. New York Giants- They should be 0-3. This team is dysfunctional. Bill Cowher in 2008?

18. Houston Texans- $48 million well spent. Matt Schaub is turning this franchise around. Improved defense. Looks like they could win 7 or 8 games this year.

19. Washington Redskins- Interesting team. Jason Campbell has some potential. Defense isn't looking too bad. They should be 1-2.

20. New York Jets- Thomas Jones has been unimpressive, but he has a good chance to turn it around around this week against the Bills. They would be a wild card team in the NFC.

21. Detroit Lions- Crazy good offense. Amazingly horrendous defense. Kitna will probably surpass 5000 yards this season.

22. New Orleans Saints- The biggest disappointment in the league. It's beginning to look like last year was a fluke. No Deuce. This could get ugly.

23. Minnesota Vikings- Pretty talented defense. Some issues on offense, but Adrian Peterson looks very good.

24. St. Louis Rams- The O line is banged up as well as Bulger and Jackson. The defense needs to step it up. If they start 0-4, they're done. Another big disappointment.

25. Arizona Cardinals- Who's the QB? I think it was a bad idea to bench Leinart at the end of last week's game. Boldin looks great.

26. Miami Dolphins- Ronnie Brown is the only bright spot on this team. Please bench Trent Green and bring in John Beck.

27. San Francisco 49ers- This team has a lot of potential, but they are not performing up to it thus far. We'll see...

28. Oakland Raiders- They look decent and they've won a game. LaMont Jordan looks good. Looks like Culpepper is going start Sunday. It was ironic that they won last week on a last second timeout to ice the kicker considering that's how Denver beat them in Week 2.

29. Atlanta Falcons- Hopefully Byron Leftwich can learn the offense and playbook quickly...

30. Buffalo Bills- J.P. Losman is hurt. Good or bad? You tell me. By the way, his backup went 1-11 last year in college.

31. Cleveland Browns- Hey, they beat the Bengals.

32. Kansas City Chiefs- Money well spent on LJ...46.6 ypg.

Those are my rankings as of right now. Let me know what you think. I'll try to update every week if I can.

Peace,

3rd and Long

Wow...

2007-09-23T21:13:00.000-07:00

Is there a better time of year? You gotta love football season. I watched a little over 24 hours of football this weekend and man there was some good games. Saturday was pretty good, but Sunday was amazing.

- Can you believe the Packers are 3-0? I personally thought they would be terrible. They are winning with the ageless Brett Favre and a backfield consisting of Brandon Jackson and DeShawn Wynn.

- How about dem Cowboys? I think Sunday's performance proved that they are the best team in the NFC. Romo is playing great and Jason Garrett looks like an offensive mastermind. The defensive MVP is definitely the pickmaster Anthony Henry.

- How bad is the Detriot defense? The Eagles hung 56 and racked up 536 yards of total offense. McNabb, Westbrook and Curtis made a lot of fantasy owners happy today.

- Are the Patriots historically good? They've looked nearly flawless so far. Randy Moss already has 5 TD's and three 100+ yard games. Brady and his new found wide receivers will continue to wreck shop. 16-0?

- Some crazy falls from glory so far:
Chicago 1-2
New Orleans 0-2
San Diego 1-2

- Also, some teams not living up to the hype:
St. Louis 0-3
Cincinnati 1-2

Gotta love football.

Peace,

3rd and Long

It's time...

2007-09-08T22:02:00.000-07:00

The first full day of NFL action kicks off today and it's going to be amazing. We have some great matchups. The best game seems to be Chicago at San Diego. It's a matchup of last year's Super Bowl runner up and arguably the most talented team in the NFL. It should be fun to watch. Now, let's take a look at some storylines for 2007.

Top 5 Storylines to Follow in 2007:

1. The Atlanta Falcons- It will definitely be interesting to see how the loss of Vick will affect the Falcons. They will definitely not lead the league in rushing this season since Vick accounted for 1,039 of their 2,939 yards. Will Joey Harrington be able to lead this team? Sorry Petrino.
2. LT's Touchdown Production- LaDainian Tomlinson is coming off a year in which he was absolutely dominant. He set the single season touchdown record in 2006 with 31 trips to paydirt. It will be a great to watch him again in 2007.
3. Impact Rookies- Which rookie will make the biggest impact in 2007? Will it be Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Anthony Gonzalez? Or will it be a no-name from from the later rounds like Marques Colston in 2006?
4. Any Sophomore Slumps?- Who will suffer from the dreaded sophomore slump? Leinart? Vince Young? Reggie Bush? We will see.
5. Who will win the NFC West?- This should be by far the mediocre and competitive division in the league. I have Seattle winning it at 9-7. I just don't think the other teams (Arizona, St. Louis and San Francisco) have what it takes to be a playoff team yet.

Here are my division winners, playoff teams and Super Bowl Champion...

NFC East: Dallas Cowboys
NFC West: Seattle Seahawks
NFC North: Chicago Bears
NFC South: New Orleans Saints
NFC Wildcards: Philadelphia Eagles & Carolina Panthers

AFC East: New England Patriots
AFC West: San Diego Chargers
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens
AFC South: Indianapolis Colts
AFC Wildcards: Denver Broncos & Cincinnati Bengals

NFC Champion: Seattle Seahawks
AFC Champion: Indianapolis Colts

Super Bowl Champion: Indianapolis Colts

Now on to Sunday's picks:

Denver @ Buffalo.

-Play Denver -3 for 20 units

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland.

-Play Pittsburgh -5.5 for 50 units

Carolina @ St. Louis.

-Play St. Louis -1.5 for 30 units & Over 42.5 for 20 units

New England @ New York Jets.

-Play New England -6.5 for 20 units

Tampa Bay @ Seattle.

-Play Seattle -6 for 20 units

Chicago @ San Diego.

-Play San Diego -6 for 20 units

New York Giants @ Dallas.

-Play Dallas -6 for 20 units

Week 1 is finally here. Enjoy!

Peace,

3rd and Long

Week 2 picks...

2007-09-07T20:03:00.000-07:00

This will be short and sweet. We're headed into Week 2 of the college football season and it's just going to get better from here on out. Hopefully, we all learned a lot from last week and we can parlay that knowledge into a winning week this week. Here are 12 games I would bet...if gambling were legal of course...

West Virginia @ Marshall.
-Play Over 62 for 30 units

Nebraska @ Wake Forest.
-Play Nebraska -8.5 for 20 units

Bowling Green @ Michigan State.
-Play Michigan State -18 for 20 units

Buffalo @ Temple.
-Play Temple -3 for 20 units

Boise State @ Washington.
-Play Washington +3 for units

Fresno State @ Texas A&M.
-Play Fresno State +17 for 20 units

South Carolina @ Georgia.
-Play Georgia -3 for 20 units

Missouri @ Mississippi.
-Play Missouri -6 for 20 units

Notre Dame @ Penn State.
-Play Penn State -17 for 20 units

BYU @ UCLA.
-Play UCLA -7 for 20 units

Hawaii @ Louisiana Tech.
-Play Hawaii -28 for 20 units

Virginia Tech @ LSU.
-Play LSU -11.5 for 30 units

Those are my picks for Saturday. May the betting gods be with us.

Peace,

3rd and Long

NFL is simply the best...

2007-09-04T17:40:00.000-07:00

Wow. I can't believe it's almost here. We're a little 48 hours away from the kickoff of the 2007 NFL season. As much as I like college football, I like pro even better. The parity that exists in the NFL makes it the best and most lucrative sport we know today. The salary cap causes a lot of player turnover, but that turnover leads to the NFL being the most competitive sports out there. You have to give credit to the league for figuring out exactly how to satisfy the fans. First, it was brilliant to have the first game on a Thursday and it was made even better this year by scheduling the best possible game (Saints at Colts). The Thursday opener is much appreciated by Vegas. This game will most likely be bet more than any other solo game of the season excluding the Super Bowl. Second, they came up with the genius idea of having two Monday Night Football on the opening week. What's better than one game in primetime? Two games in primetime. Kudos NFL.

More to come before Thursday...

It's time baby

2007-08-31T20:04:00.000-07:00

Hey guys, you ready? Tomorrow is the first full day of real football. 12 hours of real football. It feels like Christmas. Even though Week 1 of the college football season kind of feels like the NFL preseason, there a few goods games on the schedule as well as a few intriguing stories. Before we get to my picks, I have a few thoughts on some of the college games from Thursday and Friday...

Let's start with LSU @ Mississippi State. LSU's defense looked great. The defensive line constantly had pressure on the quarterback and the cornerbacks are some of the best in the nation. Fifth-year senior Matt Flynn inherited the starting quarterback job at LSU this season. Flynn looked a little uncomfortable in the pocket, but his ability to scramble and make plays will be his strength this season. Early Doucet looked very good at wide receiver. Miss St. looked terrible. Their quarterback had a very rough night, throwing six picks and only completing 11 passes on 28 attempts. Please don't ever rip a college kid after a bad night. They don't get paid, they just play because they love the game. If T.O. drops a pass, rip him. If Michael Henig throws six picks, give him a break. Sorry, had to get that off my chest.

A couple more games real quick...

Murray St @ Louisville. Brian Brohm played very well going 16 of 21 for 375 yards and 4 TD's. The defense looked a little shaky at the beginning but settled in after a couple series. The offense didn't skip a beat under new head coach Steve Kragthorpe hanging up 73 points. Louisville should be a forced to be reckoned with season.

Buffalo @ Rutgers. Heisman hopeful Ray Rice was back at it in the season opener gaining 184 yards on 25 carries with 3 TD's. QB Mike Teel also had a good night, completing 16 of 23 passes for 328 yards and 2 TD's. The Big East should be interesting and fun to watch this year.

Now, on to the picks...

East Carolina @ Virginia Tech (-28). Emotions will rule. A stellar defense and inspired offense will prevail.

Play Virginia Tech -28 for 20 units

Colorado State @ Colorado (-3). Dan Hawkins a heck of a coach. With a year under his belt at Colorado, Hawkins should have his squad ready for the 2007 campaign. Plus, IT'S DIVISION 1 FOOTBALL! IT'S THE BIG 12. IT AIN'T INTRAMURALS!

Play Colorado -3 for 20 units

Western Michigan @ West Virginia (-24). The Mountaineers have the best ground attack in the nation with Pat White and Steve Slaton. Darius Reynaud returns at wide receiver and is a formidable target for White.

Play West Virginia -24 for 20 units

Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame (-1). Notre Dame was not good last year and they only beat Georgia Tech by 4. Notre Dame lost three big offensive players in Brady Quinn, Rhema McKnight and Darius Walker from last year's squad and will be forced to start a still unnamed quarterback with no experience. Georgia Tech lost QB Reggie Ball to graduation (YESSSS!!!), and junior Taylor Bennett will get the nod at quarterback this season. RB Tashard Choice and WR James Johnson return at the skill positions. I really don't see how Notre Dame can win this game.

Play Georgia Tech +1 for 30 units

Missouri (-4.5) @ Illinois. Illinois should be improved this year, but I don't know if it will be enough to overtake Missouri. Chase Daniel will be better this season and I like Mizzou to take the Big 12 North.

Play Missouri -4.5 for 20 units

Oklahoma State @ Georgia (-7). Bobby Reid is one of the best quarterbacks in the Big 12. OK St. will be competitive in the Big 12 South season. They should be able to keep this one close if the defense steps up. Georgia should be mediocre on offense.

Play Oklahoma State +7 for 20 units

Arkansas State @ Texas (-39). Colt McCoy is beginning his second year as the Longhorns starting quarterback and should be better barring injury. WR Limas Sweed and RB Jamaal Charles also return. The defense will still be above average after losing numerous players to the draft. Name one player on Arkansas State. Gotcha.

Play Texas -39 for 20 units

North Texas @ Oklahoma (-40). I could be wrong, but I don't understand all of the national hype regarding OU. I don't see them winning the Big 12 South or contending for a national championship. They have a redshirt freshman starting at quarterback and have to find a replacement for Adrian Peterson. North Texas has a new head coach in Todd Dodge. Dodge brings in a spread offense that should improve the overall offensive performance. 40 is a lot.

Play North Texas +40 for 20 units

Kansas State @ Auburn (-13.5). Auburn's defense is good and their offense is below average. RB Brad Lester is suspended for this game. Kansas State showed improvement last season beating Texas Nov. 11. QB Josh Freeman will be fun to watch.

Play Kansas State +13.5 for 20 units

Tennesse @ California (-6.5). Rematch of last year's season opener that Tennesse won 35-18. Cal is looking for revenge and I think they will get it. Nate Longshore returns at quarterback and wide receiver DeSean Jackson also returns. Jackson doubles as an explosive kick returner. Tennessee QB Erik Ainge will have to deal with a broken pinky on his throwing hand. I think Cal is a more complete team and it will show Saturday night.

Play Cal -6.5 for 40 units

You now have my view on a few of Saturday's games. If you disagree, comment and tell me why. We have a few good matchups that will be fun to watch. I hope you enjoy Saturday as much as I will.

Peace,

3rd and Long

****Note: You can see that I assigned units to all of my picks. This is for bankroll management purposes. My minimum wager is 20 units and I do not have a maximum. The units reflect my level of certainty on a particular game.

Getting ready...

2007-08-28T14:36:00.000-07:00

Well, I'm going to admit it. I'm as excited as little girl on Christmas morning about football season. I've tried many things to get my football fix, most recently including arena football, the now defunct NFL Europa and meaningless NFL preseason football. Don't get me wrong I enjoy a good preseason game no matter who's playing, but it's just not the same. Thursday night marks the start of real football with 11 college games on the slate. The game I'm looking forward to the most is LSU @ Mississippi State. I'm anxious to see how Matt Flynn plays as the starting QB. If he plays like he did in the 2005 Peach Bowl, Tiger fans will need to start looking for hotels in New Orleans for early January. The other game I'll be watching closely is Murray State @ Louisville. Bobby Petrino left Louisville for a job as the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons. Former Tulsa coach Steve Kragthorpe was hired to take his place. I want to see how Kragthorpe manages the high powered offense Petrino left him and if QB Brian Brohm can continue to perform at Heisman level and stay injury free.

Here are a few games to check out Saturday:

East Carolina @ Virginia Tech 11:00am - The first game since the shooting. Should be emotional.

Western Kentucky @ Florida 11:30am - Tim Tebow's debut as the starting QB. It will be interesting to see how the Gators bounce back after losing a lot of last year's 22 starters.

Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame 2:30pm - Who will be the Irish's starting QB? GT no longer has Reggie Ball (Thank you betting Gods).

Western Michigan @ West Virginia 2:30pm - Pat White. Steve Slaton. Enough said.

Baylor @ TCU 5:00pm - TCU is a BCS sleeper yet again. See if they can win their fifth game in a row against the Big 12 behind new starting QB Andy Dalton. Can Baylor overcome the loss of Daniel Sepulveda?

North Texas @ Oklahoma 6:00pm - The debut of Todd Dodge as a D-1 head coach. Dodge brings his spread offense to the college level. Look for a breakout year for RB Jamario Thomas. OU debuts a new QB.

Montana State @ Texas A&M 6:00pm - Upset special?

Arkansas State @ Texas 6:00pm - Colt McCoy's second season as a starter. Should be interesting. Hook 'em.

Tennessee @ Cal 7:00pm - Cal looks to avenge the 35-18 loss they suffered to the Volunteers last season.

Idaho @ USC 9:15pm - USC will probably run the table this season. New Orleans bound.

There's a few interesting games to check out Saturday. I don't know about you, but pretty darn excited! Check back Friday for some free picks for Saturday's games.

Peace out,

3rd and Long

2007-08-08T17:42:00.000-07:00

The NFL season is right around corner and it seems everyone is looking for a quick fix to hold them over until Sept. 6. This piece is three weeks in the making and hopefully it will quench your thirst for some football.

Every year before the NFL season starts, Vegas releases their predictions of the over/under of wins for each team. Sometimes they nail it and sometimes they are way off. I personally went through each team's schedule and determined which games they would win and which games they would lose. Below, you will find my analysis of each team and my predictions of each team's number of wins compared to Vegas'. So without further ado, read on and absorb....

NFC East:

Dallas Cowboys: I'll try to stay as unbiased as possible on this one. After a heart-breaking end to last season, the Cowboys have high expectations entering the 2007 season. Backup QB Tony Romo took over for the statue Drew Bledsoe after halftime of the Week 7 game against the Giants. Romo started out very good (5-1), but struggled to end the season (1-4). Romo has shown dedication and desire this offseason and will be prepared for his first full season as a starting quarterback. WRs Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn and Patrick Crayton return to help make Romo's job easier. They also return the running back tandem of Julius Jones and Marion Barber III who combined for 1738 yards and 18 touchdowns last season. The Cowboys also signed free agent OG Leonard Davis to help solidify the offensive line.

The defense struggled down the stretch giving up 152 points in the month of December. New head coach and former San Diego defensive coordinator Wade Phillips comes in to replace the retired Bill Parcells. Phillips brings with him a more aggressive style of the 3-4 defense. Many of the Cowboys' defenders have expressed their delight in the new defensive scheme and are looking forward to the upcoming season. They signed free agent S Ken Hamlin to help in the secondary. It is time for the defense to put up or shut up.

Also, new acquired backup QB Brad Johnson beat out P Mat McBriar for the holder job; much to McBriar's dismay.

Bottom line: This Cowboys team seems to be poised to make a run deep into the playoffs. The luxury of playing in the NFC should help any championship aspirations. The offense seems ready and so does the defense. In my opinion, this could be the year. Look for the Cowboys to win the NFC East and win their first playoff game in over a decade. (Biased? Yeah, probably.)

Vegas: O/U 9

3^rd and Long: Over; 11-5

New York Giants: The Giants enter the 2007 season with a coach on the hot seat and a quarterback with loads of talent and no consistency. Tom Coughlin is 25-23 in his three years as the Giants head coach and needs to improve and contend for the playoffs this year to keep his job. QB Eli Manning has been inconsistent in his three years as the Giants starter and needs to improve as he enters his fourth season. Last year’s starting RB Tiki Barber retired, leaving the Giants with a question mark in the backfield. Brandon Jacobs, Barber’s back up in 2006, will most likely get the bulk of the carries this season. Jacobs was the short yardage back last year and picked up nine touchdowns on 96 carries. The Giants traded for former Cleveland RB Reuben Droughns to help Jacobs out in the backfield. Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer return as the #1 and #2 wide receivers, respectively. The Giants used their second-round draft pick on USC WR Steve Smith to add depth at wide receiver.

The Giants have two of the league’s best defensive ends in Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. (Note: Strahan was a no show at training camp and is reportedly contemplating retirement.) Last year’s first-round pick Mathias Kiwanuka is in the process of being converted from defensive end to linebacker. Antonio Pierce and Kawika Mitchell should join Kiwanuka as the starting linebackers. The Giants used their first-round pick on Texas CB Aaron Ross to help out in the secondary.

Bottom line: The Giants are a team with loads of talent that has continually underachieved. They should be decent this year and could be good if everyone performs to their potential. The running backs need to prove that they can perform and fill the hole Barber left. Look for them to continue to underachieve, finish third the NFC East and possibly contend for the wild card.

Vegas: O/U 8½

3^rd and Long: Under; 8-8

Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles are coming off a season where starting QB Donovan McNabb went down in Week 11 with an ACL tear. Backup QB Jeff Garcia stepped in and went 5-1 as the starter down the stretch of the regular season. Garcia led the Eagles to a playoff victory over the Giants before being knocked out by the Saints. Garcia's performance in McNabb's absence landed him the starting job in Tampa Bay. The Eagles used their first pick (a second-rounder) in the 2007 draft on Houston QB Kevin Kolb to add depth to the quarterback position. The injury prone McNabb should be ready to start when Week 1 rolls around. Reggie Brown inherits the #1 wide receiver spot after the departure of Donte' Stallworth to New England. Former Rams WR Kevin Curtis was acquired to take the #2 wide receiver spot. All-Pro Brian Westbrook returns at running back and Correll Buckhalter returns as his backup.

The Eagles defense has historically strong over the past few years. They improved this offseason with a couple of signings. They added former Colts DT Montae Reagor to help beef up the interior of the defensive line. The Eagles also traded for Bills LB Takeo Spikes. All-Pro S Brian Dawkins returns as one of the leaders on the defensive side of the ball.

Bottom line: The key to the Eagles' success is health of McNabb. McNabb should stay healthy if he can accept the fact that he is no longer a young, mobile quarterback. He needs to be willing to stay in the pocket longer and look for his second and third reads. Westbrook's ability to catch passes makes him one the best backs in the league. The defense should be solid yet again. Look for the Eagles to finish second in the NFC East and contend for the wild card.

Vegas: O/U 9½

3^rd and Long: Under; 9-7

Washington Redskins: The Redskins were another team that replaced a veteran quarterback with a younger quarterback last season. Mark Brunell started nine games last season going 3-6 before being replaced by Jason Campbell. Campbell did not experience much success as the starter, but got some much needed in-game experience. Campbell will be the starter when Week 1 rolls around and Brunell will return as the backup. RB Clinton Portis battled injuries last season giving backup Ladell Betts more carries than expected. Betts took advantage of the extra carries and proved his talent. Portis should be the starter this season, but Betts will see more reps than last year. The speedy Santana Moss will return as the #1 wide receiver. Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle El will compete for the #2 wide receiver spot. The Redskins return one of the league's best tight ends in Chris Cooley.

The Redskins defense struggled last season allowing 23.5 points per game to their opponents. The Redskins used their first-round draft pick (sixth overall) on a hard hitting safety out of LSU, LaRon Landry. Landry joins Sean Taylor as the two starting safeties, making them one of the best safety tandems in the league. They also signed free agent MLB London Fletcher to anchor the middle of the defense. Fred Smoot and Shawn Springs return as the starting corners.

Bottom line: The Redskins will have to play through the development of Campbell. The talent of the running back duo should take some of the pressure off of Campbell. After a disappointing 2006 season, Brandon Lloyd needs to prove he is worthy of being one of the featured wide receivers. The defense improved over the offseason, but it looks like they will struggle again this season. Look for the Redskins to finish last in the NFC East, but show some signs of improvement.

Vegas: O/U 7½

3^rd and Long: Under; 6-10

AFC East:

Buffalo Bills: The Bills showed some signs of improvement at the end of last year, but a 7-9 record was definitely an overachievement. They have the toughest schedule in the entire league which will not help this young, struggling Bills squad. I do not think the Bills can win with J.P. Losman under center. The departure of star RB Willis McGahee to Baltimore is a huge loss for this team. They used their first-round draft pick Marshawn Lynch out of Cal to replace McGahee in the backfield. Anthony Thomas will backup and split carries with Lynch. The Bills do have an emerging star in WR Lee Evans. Keep an eye on him as he gains experience this season. Peerless Price and Roscoe Parrish will be the #2 and #3 wide receivers.

The Bills defense lost two of its best players this offseason. LB Takeo Spikes was part of a package that was traded to the Eagles for DT Darwin Walker. Walker forced them to trade him to Bears for a draft pick. They also lost CB Nate Clements to free agency as the 49ers inked him. Needless to say, the Bills defense did not improve this offseason and they will struggle again this year.

Bottom line: The Bills are a young, inexperienced squad that will continue to struggle this year with the toughest schedule out there. The Bills do have a couple of bright spots in Evans and Lynch, but it will not be enough for the Bills to have a winning season. Look for the Bills to finish last in the AFC East and be at home in January.

Vegas: O/U 6½

3^rd and Long: Under; 4-12

Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins ended the 2006 season in need of consistency at the quarterback position. They used three different starting quarterbacks in 2006 including Daunte Culpepper, Joey Harrington, and Cleo Lemon. The Dolphins cut Culpepper and Harrington during the offseason. They acquired QB Trent Green from the Chiefs and used their second-round draft pick on BYU QB John Beck. Green will be the starter when Week 1 rolls around. The Dolphins used their first-round pick on Ohio St. WR Ted Ginn Jr. Ginn joins Chris Chambers and Marty Booker as the Dolphins' top three wide receivers. Ronnie Brown returns as the starting running back. Third-round pick out of Florida State Lorenzo Booker will back up Brown. The departure of head coach Nick Saban makes room for former Chargers offensive coordinator and new head coach Cam Cameron.

The defense will be solid again this season. They acquired former Steelers All-Pro LB Joey Porter this season. Last year's Defensive Player of the Year Jason Taylor returns at DE. Veteran Zach Thomas also returns at LB. Porter had his injured knee scoped and is questionable for Week 1.

Bottom line: Chemistry seems to be the biggest issue facing the 2007 Dolphins after adding a new head coach and starting quarterback. Green needs to prove he can stay healthy and be productive. The defense will be good again this season. Look for them to finish second in the AFC East and miss the playoffs.

Vegas: O/U 7

3^rd and Long: Push; 7-9

New England Patriots: The Patriots are coming off a season in which they reached the AFC Championship game and had a Super Bowl berth within reach. They led the Colts 21-6 at halftime of the conference championship, but were outscored 32 to 13 in the second half and fell just short of the Super Bowl. The Patriots have a proven consistent winning starting quarterback in Tom Brady and have an up-and-coming star RB in Laurence Maroney. Kevin Faulk and Sammy Morris will backup Maroney in backfield after Corey Dillon was cut in the offseason. For the past few years, the Patriots have lacked consistency and depth at the wide receiver position. They addressed that issue this offseason trading for bad boy WR Randy Moss and signing former Saints and Eagles WR Donte' Stallworth. They also signed former Bengals WR Kelley Washington and former Dolphins WR Wes Welker. The Patriots also retained WRs Reche Caldwell, Jabar Gaffney, Troy Brown and Chad Jackson. Ben Watson also returns at tight end.

The Patriots defense was one of the better defenses in the league last year. They did not lose any defenders that played a significant role in last year's run to the conference championship. However, the Patriots did have a big free agent signing this offseason. They signed unrestricted free agent linebacker Adalius Thomas of the Ravens to add to an experienced linebacker corps. The front three on defense return. They also used first round pick on Miami S Brandon Meriweather. Meriweather could receive significant playing time based on his speed and athletic ability. The Patriots will have one of the best groups of cornerbacks in the league again this year if Asante Samuel does not hold out. The Pats placed the franchise tag on Samuel much to his dismay. Samuel is threatening to sit out 10 games if he does not get a new contract. If this happens, the Pats will have difficulty replacing Samuel who is one of the best cover corners in the league.

Bottom line: The Patriots will be one of the best teams in the league this season. They were a game away from the Super Bowl last year and just got better this offseason. Any team with Brady at quarterback and Bill Belichick as head coach has a chance to contend. Despite having the third toughest schedule in the NFL, look for them to win the AFC East and seriously contend for the championship.

Vegas: O/U 11½

3^rd and Long: Over; 12-4

New York Jets: The Jets are not a flashy team by any means, but they somehow managed to win 10 games and land a playoff berth last season. QB Chad Pennington, who has battled injuries throughout his career, avoided injury last season and started all 16 games. Pennington needs to stay healthy to give the Jets a chance to compete. Former Bears RB Thomas Jones was acquired to add stability in the backfield. Jones will take the bulk of the carries and will be backed up by Leon Washington. Jones allows the Jets to get away from another running back by committee situation. Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery return as the #1 and #2 wide receivers. Seventh-round draft pick Chansi Stuckey and Justin McCareins will compete for the #3 wide receiver spot.

The Jets used their 14th overall pick on Pittsburgh CB Darrelle Revis. Revis will join Andre Dyson as the starting cornerbacks. Pro Bowler Jonathan Vilma returns at LB. There were no other significant changes on defense. (Note: The Jets and Revis have not agreed to a contract. He is currently holding out.)

Bottom line: The Jets significantly overachieved last season and I do not see them being a winning team in 2007. The offense will be a little better this year as long as Pennington stays healthy, but the defense will be their downfall. Look for them to finish third in the AFC East and miss the playoffs.

Vegas: O/U 8½

3^rd and Long: Under; 6-10

NFC West:

Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals have a new head coach this season in Ken Whisenhunt. Whisenhunt's experience as Pittsburgh's offensive coordinator will help this young squad. Second-year QB Matt Leinart took the starting job from Kurt Warner after Week 4. Leinart went 4-7 as the starter. He should still have his fair share of growing pains as the young offense matures. Edgerrin James returns as the starting running back. Marcel Shipp and J.J. Arrington will compete for the backup running back job. Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald will be the top two wide receivers. The Cardinals used their first-round draft pick (fifth overall) on Penn State OT Levi Brown. Brown will start at right tackle and will to help keep Leinart on his feet.

The defense struggled last season and will no doubt remain their Achilles’ heel this year. They used their second-round draft pick on Michigan DT Alan Branch. The Cardinals signed a few free agents to help out in the secondary. Roderick Hood was signed to start at cornerback and Terrence Holt to start at safety.

Bottom line: The Cards will be better than last season and having the easiest schedule in the league will help them, but they still need a couple more years for their young talent to mature. They seem to have an emerging star in Leinart. James is still a question mark at running back. He needs to prove that his success in Indianapolis was not just a product of defenses focusing on Peyton Manning's passing ability. Look for the Cardinals to finish at the bottom of the NFC West and be more prepared to make a playoff run in 2008.

Vegas: O/U 7½

3^rd and Long: Under; 6-10

San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers showed signs of improvement last season going 7-9. Former #1 overall pick QB Alex Smith flourished under the tutelage of now departed offensive coordinator Norv Turner. Frank Gore emerged as one of the best running backs in the league last season. Gore broke his hand in training camp and will miss the preseason, but should be ready when Week 1 rolls around. Gore will be the featured back and should not split many carries with backup Maurice Hicks. The 49ers acquired former Seattle WR Darrell Jackson to take over the #1 spot. They also acquired former Broncos and Falcons WR Ashley Lelie this offseason. Arnaz Battle and Lelie will compete for the #2 wide receiver spot. The 49ers also have an emerging star in TE Vernon Davis.

The defense was definitely one of their weaknesses last season. The 49ers looked to improve their secondary with the signing of free agent CB Nate Clements. The 49ers made Clements the highest-paid cornerback in league history, signing him to an eight-year, $80 million contract. They also used their first-round pick (11th overall) on Ole Miss LB Patrick Willis.

Bottom line: The 49ers are still a young team needing to show more signs of maturity. Smith, Gore, and Davis are a young group of core players that the 49ers can build around for the next decade. Smith should experience some more growing pains as he continues to mature as an NFL starting quarterback. If Gore avoids injury, he should be one of the league's top backs. Look for the 49ers to finish in the middle of the NFC West and possibly contend for the wild card.

Vegas: O/U 7½

3^rd and Long: Over; 8-8

Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks were the best team in a weak NFC West division last season. They won the division and landed a playoff berth with a 9-7 record. They beat the Cowboys in the Wild Card game before being knocked out of the playoffs in the Divisional game by the Bears. The Seahawks quarterback situation should remain solid this season with Matt Hasselbeck returning as the starter and Seneca Wallace as the backup. All-Pro RB Shaun Alexander missed six games last season with a fractured foot. Alexander should avoid injury this season since he is not on the cover of Madden 2008. Last year's #1 WR Darrell Jackson left for the 49ers, leaving the spot for Deion Branch. Nate Burleson and D.J. Hackett will battle for the #2 wide receiver spot. The Seahawks cut bad boy TE Jerramy Stevens this offseason and replaced him with former Colt and Lion Marcus Pollard.

The Seahawks made no significant changes this offseason. The squad was mediocre last season. They ranked 19th in league in points allowed per game last season. The Seahawks used their first three picks in the draft on defense and their second and third-round picks on defensive lineman. Veteran S Ken Hamlin left for the Cowboys and will be replaced by Deon Grant.

Bottom line: This Seahawks team is not much different than last year's squad. The key to their success is the performance of Alexander. If he stays healthy, they have a shot at making a playoff run. Improvement on the defensive side of the ball would also help their cause. Look for the Seahawks to win the weak NFC West and possibly make a playoff run.

Vegas: O/U 9

3^rd and Long: Push; 9-7

St. Louis Rams: The Rams re-signed QB Marc Bulger to a 6-year, $65 million contract during the offseason to lock him up for the remainder of his career. Bulger has proved to be one of the best quarterbacks in the league and with the distraction of a contract extension out of the picture, he should continue to put up great numbers. RB Steven Jackson will again take the bulk of the carries and should put up Pro Bowl numbers. Former Miami RB Travis Minor and second-round draft pick Brian Leonard will compete for the backup running back job. Veteran All-Pro WR Torry Holt returns as the #1 wide out. The Rams signed former Tennessee WR Drew Bennett to a six-year deal. Bennett will compete with long-time Rams WR Isaac Bruce for the #2 spot. The Rams also signed former Miami TE Randy McMichael to a three-year deal.

The Rams defense has been their downfall over the past few years. Long-time Rams DE Leonard Little returns to play the left end in the Rams base 4-3 defense. They used their first-round pick (13th overall) on Nebraska DE Adam Carriker. Carriker will be converted to DT and will be the starter at the right tackle position.

Bottom line: The offense will definitely be the strength of this 2007 Rams squad. The one-two punch of Bulger and Jackson is one of the best in the league and will be a force to be reckoned with in 2007. They used four of their eight draft picks on defensive players, but the defense will continue to struggle this season. Look for the Rams to finish in the middle of the NFC West and flirt with the wild card spot.

Vegas: O/U 7½

3^rd and Long: Over; 8-8

AFC West:

Denver Broncos: The Broncos are coming off a season that included a midseason quarterback change and the disappointment of failing to secure a playoff berth for the first time since 2002. QB Jay Cutler took over for Jake Plummer in Week 13. Cutler went 2-3 as a starter, but failed to lead the team to playoffs. Cutler will be the starter this season after the trade/retirement of Plummer. The Broncos acquired former Titans RB Travis Henry to replace Tatum Bell who left Denver after being traded to Detroit. Henry's companion in the backfield will be Mike Bell. The Broncos also acquired former Colts slot receiver Brandon Stokley to backup WRs Javon Walker, Rod Smith and Brandon Marshall. The success of this offense sits on Cutler's shoulders.

The Broncos' defense was one of best in the league for the first eight games, only allowing 98 points. The second half of the season was a different story. The defense allowed 207 points in the final eight games. The Broncos have the best cornerback in the league in Champ Bailey, but an offseason tragedy left them without a second cornerback. Twenty-four year old CB Darrent Williams was killed in a drive-by shooting. The Broncos acquired Lions CB Dre' Bly in the Tatum Bell trade. Bly will fill the second cornerback spot left by Williams' death.

Bottom line: The Broncos have the talent to make a playoff run, but Cutler's inexperience could hold them back for another year. The defense has to play good for 16 games in order for them to succeed in the highly competitive AFC. Look for them to finish second in the AFC West and compete for the wild card.

Vegas: O/U 9½

3^rd and Long: Under; 9-7

Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs reached the playoffs last season, but lost to the eventual Super Bowl champion Colts. Veteran QB Trent Green began the season as the starter, but after a brutal hit in the head backup Damon Huard was called upon to be starter. Huard went 5-3 as the starter. Huard's audition was good enough for the Chiefs' front office. Green was traded to the Dolphins to make room for Huard to be the starter. Look for second year QB Brodie Croyle to be the quarterback of the future. RB Larry Johnson is unhappy with his contract, but he should be ready when the season starts. Michael Bennett returns as Johnson’s backup. WRs Eddie Kennison and Samie Parker will return as the #1 and #2 WRs respectively.

The defense was decent last season. They return most of the defenders from last year including CBs Ty Law and Patrick Surtain. They acquired veteran LB Donnie Edwards from San Diego. Edwards joins LBs Derrick Johnson and Napolean Harris.

Bottom line: A lot of things need to come together for the Chiefs to be a winning team this season. Johnson carried the ball 416 times last season. An injury may be in his future. Huard needs to prove he can be a productive starting quarterback for a full season. Look for the Chiefs to finish third in the AFC West and miss the playoffs.

Vegas: O/U 8

3^rd and Long: Under; 6-10

Oakland Raiders: The Raiders were the worst team in the NFL last year which landed them the #1 overall pick in the draft. They used that pick on LSU QB JaMarcus Russell. Russell is huge guy (6' 6", 265 lbs.) with a lot of upside. He is definitely the quarterback of the Raiders' future, but the future is not now. The Raiders signed free agent QB Daunte Culpepper to a one-year contract. It looks like Josh McCown and Culpepper will compete for the starting quarterback job. (The Raiders and Russell have not agreed to a contract. He is currently holding out.) The Raiders acquired former Indy RB Dominic Rhodes to help out LaMont Jordan and Justin Fargas in the backfield, but Rhodes will have to sit out the first four games after violating the league's substance abuse policy. They traded away disgruntled WR Randy Moss on draft day. The departure of Moss leaves Jerry Porter and Ronald Curry as the top two wide receivers. This offense is not going to be very good again this season.

The defense was surprisingly good last season. The squad was one of the best in the league. The secondary, led by last year's first-round pick S Michael Huff, was solid last year and should be again this year. They also acquired formers Jaguars S Donovin Darius. Darius and Huff should be the starting safeties.

Bottom line: The Raiders will be horrible again this year. Despite having the #1 pick last year, the offense did not significantly improve. This team is young and inexperienced and hired 32-year-old Lane Kiffin as head coach during the offseason. The defense will be good again this year, but it is hard to be great when you are on the field 40 minutes a game. Look for the Raiders to finish last in the AFC West and contend for the #1 pick again. Sorry Darren McFadden.

Vegas: O/U 5

3^rd and Long: Under; 3-13

San Diego Chargers: The Chargers are coming off of a season where they posted a league best 14-2 record, but were bounced from the postseason in their Divisional Playoff game by New England. QB Phillip Rivers enjoyed immense success in his first full season as starter last year. Rivers job was made much easier by RB LaDainian Tomlinson. Tomlinson scored 28 rushing touchdowns and rushed for 1,815 yards in his 2006 MVP season. Tomlinson returns at running back and Michael Turner returns as his backup. The Chargers cut WR Keenan McCardell this offseason leaving the top two wide receiver spots to Eric Parker and Vincent Jackson. They also used their first-round pick on LSU WR Craig Davis. Arguably the best receiver on the roster is TE Antonio Gates.

The Chargers had one of the best defenses in the league last season. LB Shawne Merriman has made the Pro Bowl in each of his first two seasons. Veteran LB Donnie Edwards signed a free agent contract with the Chiefs. S Terrence Kiel was cut during the offseason. Clinton Hart and second-round pick Eric Weddle will compete for the starting safety job vacated by Kiel. The Chargers' defense will have to overcome the loss of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips.

Bottom line: For some odd reason, the Chargers fired head coach Marty Schottenheimer this offseason. Norv Turner was hired as his replacement. Turner has had success working with young quarterbacks and will help the development of Rivers. They have a constant in the backfield in Tomlinson who can carry the team on his back if needed. Despite the coaching changes, this team will be really good again this year. Look for the Chargers to win the AFC West and make a run deep into the playoffs (possibly a Super Bowl team).

Vegas: O/U 11

3^rd and Long: Over; 13-3

NFC North:

Chicago Bears: A year removed from representing the NFC in the Super Bowl, the Bears come into the 2007 season poised to make another run at a championship. The offense suffered a loss with the departure of RB Thomas Jones to the Jets, but former #1 pick Cedric Benson should fill the hole Jones left. A major question mark on the offensive side of the ball is fifth-year QB Rex Grossman. Grossman had flashes of greatness last season, but when the spotlight was on him, he failed miserably. Grossman had the support of head coach Lovie Smith last year during his ups and downs, but this season still remains to be seen. Benson will assume the starting job vacated by Jones and Adrian Peterson (not the rookie) will back him up. Muhsin Muhammad and Bernard Berrian return as the top two wide receivers. The Bears used their first-round pick on Miami TE Greg Olsen. Olsen will be more of a receiving tight end and Desmond Clark will provide more blocking.

The Bears’ defense remains one of the best in the league. The loss of all-pro DT Tank Johnson is a minor setback that this talented defense can easily overcome. Disgruntled LB Lance Briggs signed a one-year deal ruling out the possibility of sitting out the first ten games in protest of receiving the franchise tag. Briggs joins Brian Urlacher and Hunter Hillenmeyer as the starting linebackers in the base 4-3 defense. All of the members of last year’s starting secondary return. The Bears also acquired DT Darwin Walker from the Bills.

Bottom line: The Bears’ defense will continue to pick up the mediocre offense this season. With the combination of having the second easiest schedule in the league, playing in a weak division and the weaker competition that the NFC provides, the Bears are a lock for the postseason. Grossman needs to be consistent and Benson needs to prove he is worthy of being the starter. Look for the Bears to win the NFC North and make a run into the playoffs.

Vegas: O/U 10½

3^rd and Long: Over; 11-5

Detroit Lions: The Lions are coming off a tumultuous 2006 season posting a 3-13 record. Their poor record left them with the second overall draft pick, which they used on 6' 5", 235 lbs. Georgia Tech WR Calvin Johnson. Johnson was arguably the most NFL ready player in the draft. With or without Johnson, the Lions still are not very good. Johnson will be added to an already talented receiving corps including Roy Williams and Mike Furrey. Longtime backup QB Jon Kitna returns for another season as the starter. The Lions will be another team with a two running back system, using Kevin Jones and newly acquired Tatum Bell.

The Lions defense will again be there downfall. The loss of starting CB Dre' Bly to the Broncos will be a tough hole to fill. The Lions re-signed DT Cory Redding to a seven-year deal. Redding will join Shaun Rogers as the two starting defensive tackles in Lions base 4-3 defense.

Bottom line: The Lions will be better this year, but still will not be very good. Kitna predicted more than 10 wins this season. They cannot win 10 games with the present defense. The offense should be pretty good. WR Calvin Johnson will be in contention for rookie of the year. Look for them to finish second in the weak NFC North, but miss the playoffs.

Vegas: O/U 6½

3^rd and Long: Under; 5-11

Green Bay Packers: The Packers will not be a winning team until Brett Favre retires. Favre's inability to make a timely decision on retirement has held the Packers back for the past few years. Aaron Rodgers returns as the backup quarterback. Last season's starting RB Ahman Green left the Packers for Houston. Vernand Morency and second-round pick Brandon Jackson will split time in the backfield. They also return Donald Driver and Greg Jennings as the top two wide receivers.

The Packers defense suffered no significant losses this offseason. The defense is mediocre at best and will need step up and play better if the Packers expect to win. DE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, CB Charles Woodson and LB Nick Barnett are a few bright spots on defensive side of the ball. Also, look for second year LB A.J. Hawk to emerge as a star with a year of experience under his belt.

Bottom line: Do not look for the Packers to have much success this season. Despite playing in a weak division, this aging Packers team will struggle to win games. Jackson could emerge as the full-time starter in the backfield. Look for them to finish near the bottom of the NFC North and miss the playoffs.

Vegas: O/U 7½

3^rd and Long: Under; 4-12

Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings started the 2006 season with veteran QB Brad Johnson as the starter, but after struggling down the stretch he was replaced by rookie QB Tarvaris Jackson. Jackson started the final two games of the season, losing both. Johnson was cut in the offseason and Jackson will most likely be the Week 1 starter. The Vikings used the seventh overall pick on Oklahoma RB Adrian Peterson. Peterson will join Chester Taylor in the backfield and split carries. The Vikings wide receiver situation is not promising. The #1 wide receiver will be Troy Williamson. Williamson is entering his third season and needs to step up and perform like a #1. WR Bobby Wade will fill the #2 spot. The Vikings used their second-round pick on South Carolina WR Sidney Rice to help solidify a shaky group of wide receivers.

In 2006 the Vikings had the best run defense in the league. The defensive line is anchored by Pro Bowl DTs Pat Williams and Kevin Williams. The secondary was decent last year and the rest of the defense had little change during the offseason.

Bottom line: The Vikings enter the 2007 season with an inexperienced quarterback who will no doubt experience growing pains. Peterson battled injuries in college and needs to prove he can handle the intensity of a grueling 16 game NFL season. The defense should be pretty good again this year if the secondary can keep up. Look for them to finish at the bottom of the NFC North and miss the playoffs.

Vegas: O/U 7

3^rd and Long: Under; 4-12

AFC North:

Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens had two big transactions this offseason. They acquired former Bills RB Willis McGahee to replace Jamal Lewis who they cut February 28. McGahee is an ideal replacement for the aging Lewis. McGahee is entering his fourth season in the league and is just what the Ravens were looking for to help the offense put points on the board. Mike Anderson returns and will be McGahee’s primary backup. The Ravens have struggled on offense in recent years and this year marks the second season with Steve McNair under center. McNair is on the downside of his career, but has the experience to be the leader the Ravens need on offense. The top two wide receivers will again be Mark Clayton and Derrick Mason. Keep an eye on #3 wide receiver Demetrius Williams. The Ravens also have one of the league’s best tight ends, Todd Heap.

The other big transaction was the departure of LB Adalius Thomas to the Patriots. The Ravens drafted two linebackers to help fill the hole Thomas left; Antwan Barnes out of Florida International and Prescott Burgess out of Michigan. Despite this, they have arguably the best defense in the NFL. The secondary is very talented. The combination of Ed Reed, Chris McAlister, Samari Rolle and Dawan Landry is second to none.

Bottom line: After going 13-3 last year, the Ravens improved on offense and maintained on the defensive side of the ball. The offense is still far from the best in the league and McNair is not a top tier quarterback, but the stellar defense takes up the slack left by the offense. I do not see their record being as good as last year, but they are a lock for the playoffs. Look for the Ravens to win the AFC North and possibly make a deep playoff run.

Vegas: O/U 9½

3^rd and Long: Over; 11-5

Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals enter the 2007 season hoping to put all the player misconduct of last year behind them. The Bengals have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. Led by QB Carson Palmer, WRs Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh and RB Rudi Johnson, the Bengals definitely have the ability to put points on the board. Third WR Chris Henry will miss the first half of the season due to numerous run-ins with the law. Tab Perry will try to fill in until Henry is back. Kenny Watson and second-round draft pick Kenny Irons will back up Rudi Johnson at running back.

The Bengals needs to improve their defense to become a Super Bowl contender. They struggled all of last year allowing their opponents to score at will. The Bengals used four of their seven draft picks on defensive players. Their first-round pick was used on Michigan CB Leon Hall. They also drafted TCU S Marvin White with their fourth-round pick.

Bottom line: This Bengals squad is set on the offensive side of the ball, but their defense is going to hold them back. Watch out for Irons to take a larger role in the offense if Rudi Johnson struggles. Look for them to finish second in the AFC North and contend for the wild card.

Vegas: O/U 9½

3^rd and Long: Under; 9-7

Cleveland Browns: The Browns were bad last year and they do not seem to have improved during the offseason. Head coach Romeo Crennel seems to be on the hot seat and things are not looking very good. The quarterback position is still up in the air, but it seems that Charlie Frye will win out over Derek Anderson and first-round draft pick Brady Quinn. The running back situation is not solid at all. The Browns acquired RB Jamal Lewis to replace the departed Reuben Droughns. Lewis does not have a solid backup. Jerome Harrison and Jason Wright will compete for the job. Braylon Edwards and Joe Jurevicius return as the top two wide outs. Kellen Winslow also returns at tight end. The Browns used their #3 overall draft pick on Wisconsin OT Joe Thomas. Thomas will try to help solidify an already shaky offensive line.

The defense was not good last season and should not be much better this season. The Browns used four of their seven draft picks on defense to help add depth and young talent to the weak squad. They drafted two cornerbacks and two defensive ends. The corners were Eric Wright out of UNLV and Brandon McDonald out of Memphis. The defensive ends were Melila Purcell out of Hawaii and Chase Pittman out of LSU.

Bottom line: This season is going to be a disaster for the Browns. The quarterback situation will remain a problem throughout the year. I do not think Lewis can carry the full load for 16 games because of his age and injury history. The good news is the Cowboys have the rights to the Browns' first-round in next year's draft. Can you say top three? Look for the Browns to finish last in the AFC North and possibly have a new head coach in 2008.

Vegas: O/U 6

3^rd and Long: Under; 4-12

Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers are two years removed from a Super Bowl and coming off a season where they went 8-8 and missed the playoffs. QB Ben Roethlisberger had a less eventful offseason this year and should be 100% healthy and focused for the 2007 season. RB Willie Parker will return as the featured back and Najeh Davenport returns as his backup. They also added former 49ers and Jets RB Kevan Barlow to add depth in the backfield. Veteran Hines Ward returns as the #1 wide receiver. It looks as if second-year WR Santonio Holmes will overtake Cedrick Wilson for the #2 wide receiver spot. Wilson will settle in as the #3. (Note: Holmes needs to step it up because Wilson has looked great in the preseason.)

The Steelers cut one of their team leaders this offseason in LB Joey Porter. James Harrison will fill the void left by Porter at linebacker. The Steelers used their first-round pick on Florida State LB Lawrence Timmons. Timmons will backup Harrison and possibly compete for the starting job before the season is over. Fifth-round pick out of Louisville, CB William Gay has been impressive during the preseason and could sneak his way up the depth chart. They re-signed All-Pro S Troy Polamalu to a four-year deal worth more than $30 million, making him the highest paid defensive player in Steelers history.

Bottom line: The Steelers did not really get any better this offseason and they did not make any big free agent signings. The offense may be a little better this season, but nothing significant. Former Vikings defensive coordinator Mike Tomlin replaces the departed Bill Cowher at head coach. Tomlin's defensive mind may help the defense this season, but we will have to wait and see. Look for the Steelers to finish third in the NFC North and miss the playoffs.

Vegas: O/U 9

3^rd and Long: Under; 8-8

NFC South:

Note: There will be no Atlanta Falcons analysis until a decision comes out about Michael Vick’s status.

Carolina Panthers: The Panthers enter the 2007 season with relatively the same team that posted an 8-8 record last season. An aging Jake Delhomme will start the season under center, but will need to look over his shoulder at newly acquired QB David Carr if he struggles down the stretch. Running backs DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams will split the carries this season. Williams seems to have more upside with Foster’s injury history. The Panthers were forced to cut veteran WR Keyshawn Johnson after drafting USC WR Dwayne Jarrett in the second round. The talented receiving corps of Steve Smith, Keary Colbert and Jarrett will help make Delhomme’s job easier.

The Panthers’ defense did not lose any significant players this offseason and they still have one of the best defensive ends in the league in Julius Peppers. They used their first-round draft pick on Miami LB Jon Beason. Veteran S Mike Minter retired this offseason due to chronic knee pain. The defense is not great, but it is good enough to put up a winning record in the NFC.

Bottom line: The Panthers are not great by any means. The key to their success seems to be their ability to stay healthy (especially Foster). Having a relatively easy schedule and playing in the NFC should lead them to a winning record. Look for the Panthers to finish second in the NFC South and contend for the wild card.

Vegas: O/U 9

3^rd and Long: Push; 9-7

New Orleans Saints: The 2006 season for the Saints was an emotional roller coaster and quite frankly a miracle. After a 2005 season in which they went 3-13 and were rendered homeless by Hurricane Katrina, the Saints bounced back in 2006 winning 10 games and reaching the NFC Championship game. Pro Bowl QB Drew Brees returns in 2007 for his second season with the Saints. They are solid at the running back spot. Deuce McAllister and last year's #2 overall pick Reggie Bush will split time in the backfield. McAllister is more of power back, while Bush is an elusive, athletic back who can double as a wide receiver. Last year's #1 WR Joe Horn was cut in the offseason for cap relief. 2006 seventh-round draft pick Marques Colston will assume the #1 wide receiver position after a break out rookie season in which he had 70 receptions for 1,038 yards and eight touchdowns. Devery Henderson will be the #2 wide receiver and the #3 spot will be an open competition between David Patten, Terrance Copper and 2007 first-round pick Robert Meachem. Expect no issues with the offense this season.

The defense was decent last season, but definitely relied on the offense to make their jobs easier. The defensive line remains intact with standout DEs Will Smith and Charles Grant and DTs Hollis Thomas and Brian Young. They added free agent Scott Shanle to help solidify the linebacker corps and free agent CB Jason David to help out in the weak secondary.

Bottom line: The Saints will definitely be one of the best teams in the NFC. They seemed to be the favorite in the NFC last year going into the playoffs, but ran into a tough Bears team with home field advantage. The defense, especially the secondary, will be the weakness of this 2007 squad. With possibly the best offense in the NFC, look for the Saints to win the NFC South and contend for a championship.

Vegas: O/U 9½

3^rd and Long: Over; 11-5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccaneers are coming off a disappointing 2006 season. The Bucs went 4-12 and used three different starting quarterbacks. QB Chris Simms went down after multiple big hits in Week 3 and was forced to have a splenectomy. QBs Bruce Gradkowski and Tim Rattay started the remaining 13 games. Jeff Garcia's performance in Donovan McNabb's absence prompted the Bucs to sign him this offseason. All signs point towards Garcia being the starting quarterback when Week 1 rolls around. RB Cadillac Williams had a disappointing 2006 season only scoring one touchdown and failing to rush for 1,000 yards in 14 games. Williams will return as the starter and Michael Pittman will back him up. The #1 and #2 wide receivers will be Joey Galloway and Michael Clayton respectively. The Bucs beefed up the left side of the offensive line with the signing of OT Luke Petitgout and the drafting of OG Arron Sears.

The Buccaneers have historically had one of the league's tougher defensive squads. The Bucs used their first-round draft pick (fourth overall) on Clemson DE Gaines Adams. They cut veteran DE Simeon Rice to make room for Adams. Former Colts LB Cato June signed on this offseason and joins Derrick Brooks and Barrett Ruud as the starting linebackers. Veterans Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly return as the top two cornerbacks.

Bottom line: The Bucs should be much better this season. Garcia brings experience to the quarterback position and leadership to the offense. Williams must have a better season for the Bucs to show major signs of improvement. He also needs to prove that he is not a one year wonder. The defense made some progress this offseason and will be better this year. Look for the Bucs to finish third in the NFC South and miss the playoffs.

Vegas: O/U 7

3^rd and Long: Push; 7-9

AFC South:

Houston Texans: The Texans just are not good. They traded for former Falcons backup QB Matt Schaub to replace David Carr. Schaub will not have much more success than Carr had because the offensive line is terrible. They also acquired former Packers RB Ahman Green. Green will share time in the backfield with Ron Dayne. Oddly enough, the Texans have one of the best wide receivers in the league in Andre Johnson. Kevin Walter should take over as the #2 wide receiver. The Texans also acquired veteran WR Keenan McCardell.

The defense is will also struggle this season. Last year's #1 overall pick Mario Williams is still a few years away from being effective at defensive end. MLB DeMeco Ryans is an emerging star, keep an eye on him. The Texans used this year's first round pick on 19-year-old DT Amobi Okoye out of Louisville.

Bottom line: The Texans may have gotten a little better as a team, but I do not think their record will reflect it. They still have many areas they need to improve on. Look for them to finish last in the AFC South yet again.

Vegas: O/U 6½

3^rd and Long: Under; 4-12

Indianapolis Colts: I'll try to stay as unbiased as possible on this one also. Super Bowl Champions. Enough said. The Colts retained the majority of the offensive players that led them to a championship. RB Dominic Rhodes left for Oakland in order to make room for Joseph Addai to be the full-time starter. DeDe Dorsey should be the backup running back. Injury prone slot WR Brandon Stokley left for Denver. The Colts used their first round pick on Ohio St. WR Anthony Gonzalez. Gonzalez will be the new slot receiver this season. As long as the Colts have QB Peyton Manning, WR Reggie Wayne and WR Marvin Harrison, they have a chance to contend for a championship.

The defense struggled at times last season, but stepped up when it really counted. They suffered quite a few losses on the defensive side of the ball this offseason including LB Cato June, CB Nick Harper, S Mike Doss and DT Montae Reagor. However, the Colts did re-sign one of their best players, DE Dwight Freeney. Freeney's 6 year, $72 million contract makes him the highest paid defensive player in NFL history. Starting DT Anthony McFarland will miss most of, if not all of the season with a knee injury. The big questions facing the defense remain their ability to stop the run and the inexperienced secondary.

Bottom line: The Colts remain one of the best teams in the league and with Manning under center, they have the experience to go back to back. They seem to have a good chance for an appearance in the AFC Championship game once again. Depth and defense will be the weak areas on this 2007 squad. Look for the Colts to win the AFC South and make a run deep into the playoffs.

Vegas: O/U 11

3^rd and Long: Over 12-4

Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars enter the 2007 with pretty much the same team as last year. The biggest question mark for them remains the quarterback position. Veteran QB Byron Leftwich has a history of injuries which has led to backup David Garrard receiving significant playing time. Garrard took advantage of the nine starts he had last season going 5-4. It should be an open competition for the starting job, but it seems as if Leftwich will get the nod when Week 1 comes around. Veteran RB Fred Taylor and second-year RB Maurice Jones-Drew will split time in the backfield again this season. Going into camp, it is an open competition for the top two wide receiver spots. Reggie Williams and Matt Jones seem to have the lead in that competition, but watch out for Ernest Wilford and Charles Sharon.

The defense will be their strength again this season. First-round draft pick Reggie Nelson will take over at free safety. The defensive line returns and they are solid at linebacker. CB Ahmad Carroll and S Donovin Darius were both cut during the offseason.

Bottom line: The Jaguars could have a good season if they are not bit by the injury bug. The defense will be solid again this year. Also, keep an eye on Jones-Drew. The combination of Jones-Drew and Taylor will be productive again this season. Look for them to compete for second in the AFC South and have an outside chance to contend for the wild card.

Vegas: O/U 9

3^rd and Long: Under; 8-8

Tennessee Titans: The Titans found a franchise player in #3 overall pick QB Vince Young last season. Young took over as the starter in Week 4 after Kerry Collins started the season 0-3. Young went 8-5 as the starter and proved he was worth the top pick. Collins returns to backup Young in 2007. The running back position is definitely up in the air for the Titans. Last year's starting RB Travis Henry was cut in the offseason and subsequently signed by Denver. RBs Chris Brown, LenDale White, and second-round draft pick Chris Henry are all in an open competition for the starting job. The Titans acquired veteran WR Eric Moulds to help out with the maturation of Young. Moulds will join Brandon Jones as the top two wide outs. TEs Ben Troupe and Bo Scaife should see quite a few passes come their way.

The Titans were left with a hole at cornerback after the year long suspension of Pacman Jones. They signed two veteran cornerbacks during the offseason in former Colt Nick Harper and former Seahawk Kelly Herndon. Reynaldo Hill returns to add depth to the cornerback position. The Titans used their first-round draft pick on Texas S Michael Griffin. Chris Hope returns at strong safety.

Bottom line: The Titans are mostly young and inexperienced on the offensive side of the ball. Young's ability to scramble makes him one of the hardest players to game plan against in the league. He still needs to become a more consistent passer. Depth at wide receiver position will be an issue. The defense has the ability to be good, but it remains to be seen how the new faces will mesh. Look for the Titans to finish second or third in the AFC South and possibly contend for the wild card.

Vegas: O/U 7

3^rd and Long: Over; 8-8

That's a wrap. Hope you enjoyed. Are you ready for some football?

Dog Fighting?

2007-07-18T20:37:00.000-07:00

The only thing that comes to mind when I hear about the Michael Vick dog fighting situation is..Why?? Why would anyone partake in an act as gruesome as dog fighting? I just don't understand. The thought breeding and training dogs to essentially kill each other is unimaginable and to me incomprehensible. I understand Vick was only indicted and in America you're innocent until proven guilty, but I don't see any way Vick didn't at least know what was going on at a house that he owns. Numerous people have come forward and said that Vick has been heavily involved in dog fighting for several years. I think there will be enough witnesses and evidence to convict him. I don't care if it's Michael Vick or Joe Nobody, if you're involved in organized dog fighting you should rot in jail. Is Vick guilty in the court of public opinion? I say yes.